Helping America Navigate a New Energy Reality

Archive for October, 2010

The Peak Oil Debate is Over – Dr. James Schlesinger

By on 30 Oct 2010 in commentary with 0 Comments
The Peak Oil Debate is Over – Dr. James Schlesinger

Can the political order face up to the challenge? There is no reason for optimism.

We are likely to see pseudo-solutions, misleading alternatives and sheer sloganeering: “energy independence,” “getting off foreign oil” and the like. All of that sheer sloganeering we have seen to this point.

The political order (which abhors political risk) tends to rely on the Biblical prescription, “Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof.”

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Electrification and Expansion of Railroads as a Response to Peak Oil, By Alan S. Drake

By on 25 Oct 2010 in commentary with 4 Comments

One of the quickest and most effective responses to the realities of a post-Peak Oil economy is to electrify and expand the main-line railroads (about 35,000 miles in as little as 6 years) and later the busy branch lines (another 35,000 miles). The railroads burn slightly less than 300,000 b/d and inter-city trucking uses about 2 million b/d. Inter-city freight includes some of the most essential uses of oil today, such as delivering food and a variety of critical materials.

Replacing 300,000 b/d with electricity is good. Replacing 2 million b/day is significant. Creating a transportation system that can quickly, reliably and efficiently transport food, critical materials and people without oil is a vital national security concern.

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Hannes Loacker, analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich AG

By on 25 Oct 2010 in quotes with 0 Comments

“China’s demand for oil remains strong and the rate hike is not of a magnitude that would change that.”

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Review October 25, 2010

By on 25 Oct 2010 in Peak Oil Review with 1 Comment

Oil prices started the week just below $84 a barrel; plunged to touch $79.25 on Tuesday in reaction to an unexpected interest rate increase in China; and then bounced back to close at $81.69 on Friday as traders decided the rate increase would not slow Chinese economic growth. As usual the value of the dollar, and expectations for same, were behind many of the price movements. The general weakening of the dollar and anticipation that the US will soon begin “quantitative easing” again continues to lend support to prices.

The weekly US stocks report showed total commercial stocks down by 2 million barrels. Gasoline stocks continue to build due to weak consumer demand, while middle distillate stocks continue to fall due to limited economic growth, more air travel, and larger US distillate exports.

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A Citizen's Guide to an Oil Free Economy, Chapt. 1

By on 25 Oct 2010 in Other with 13 Comments
A Citizen's Guide to an Oil Free Economy, Chapt. 1

An American Citizen’s Guide to an Oil-Free Economy A How-To Manual for Ending Oil Dependency With valuable bonus information on Saving Our Economy, Our Planet and Strengthening Our National Security by Alan S. Drake  Foreword “Where there is no vision, the people perish” – Proverbs 29:18 A society that does not plan or prepare, that […]

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Peak Oil Versus Peak Exports, By: Jeffrey J. Brown & Samuel Foucher, PhD

By on 18 Oct 2010 in commentary with 8 Comments
Peak Oil Versus Peak Exports, By: Jeffrey J. Brown & Samuel Foucher, PhD

At the recent (2010) ASPO-USA conference, we reviewed, in our presentation on net oil exports, two examples of production peaks in oil producing regions. We also reviewed “Net Export Math” and we looked at some examples of net export declines. Finally, we reviewed our projections for net oil exports from the top five net oil exporters in 2005, followed by two scenarios for global net oil exports. In this paper we will briefly review the highlights of our presentation.

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Review October 18, 2010

By on 18 Oct 2010 in Peak Oil Review with 0 Comments

After climbing from a trading range in the low to mid $70s in late September, oil prices have remained in the low $80s for the past three weeks – closing at $81.25 on Friday. Much of the daily oil price movements are tied to the dollar rather than news concerning the oil markets. Opinions are mixed as to whether a possible resumption of “quantitative easing” will or will not help the US economy recover. Some believe the $10 a barrel increase in oil’s trading range during the past month is an overreaction to the prospects for economic growth.

The fundamental question remains as to whether demand for oil from China, India, and the oil exporting nations will be so strong over the next two years that it outruns sluggish or possibly falling demand from the OECD countries and begins to drain global stockpiles. Last week there were a number of reports and developments that bear on this issue.

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New Warnings About the Challenges of Oil Depletion

By on 12 Oct 2010 in commentary with 4 Comments

WASHINGTON (October 12, 2010): Over three jam-packed days at the sixth annual Conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO USA), a single, coherent picture of a world unprepared to encounter energy limits began to emerge, articulated by an impressive array of experts on energy, economics and the environment.  From […]

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Review October 11, 2010

By on 11 Oct 2010 in Other with 1 Comment
Review October 11, 2010

Prices moved higher last week, at one point trading above $84 a barrel, before closing on Friday at $82.66. Analysts attributed the move to a weaker dollar and the French oil port strike that has been going on for the past two weeks. A weak US jobs report on Friday sent prices down to the vicinity of $80 a barrel, but continued weakness in the dollar brought it back. Analysts now believe that the jobs report will force the US Federal Reserve to begin “monetary easing” once again, resulting in a still weaker dollar and higher oil prices.

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Review October 4, 2010

By on 4 Oct 2010 in Peak Oil Review with 0 Comments

Download Full PDF Peak Oil Review 1. Oil and the Global Economy Oil prices have been doing well lately, climbing from below $75 a barrel two weeks ago to touch $81.64 on Friday. Prices are getting close to the recent high of $84 a barrel touched in early August. In London Brent crude closed the […]

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A review of The Impending World Energy Mess, By Robert Hirsch, Roger Bezdek, and Robert Wendling

By on 4 Oct 2010 in commentary with 17 Comments
A review of The Impending World Energy Mess, By Robert Hirsch, Roger Bezdek, and Robert Wendling

Five years ago Robert Hirsch headed the team that produced the first US government-sponsored report discussing the consequences of declining world oil production. The team which wrote the original report, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management, is now out with a book that discusses the current state of the world energy situation and what we can expect in the decades ahead. Developments during the last five years have sharpened the team’s appreciation of the imminence of the coming decline in world oil production. The first report, written five years ago, discussed what could be done to mitigate the situation if steps were taken 20 and 10 years before the decline in oil production started.

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Luis de Sousa, ASPO-Portugal

By on 4 Oct 2010 in quotes with 0 Comments

“The period of peak is already being lived. Predicting it is no longer relevant.”

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