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Archive for February, 2011

David Strahan, author of The Last Oil Shock

By on 28 Feb 2011 in quotes with 0 Comments

“Jeremy Gilbert, BP‘s former chief petroleum engineer, is deeply skeptical of Saudi Arabia‘s ability to deliver much more oil in the short term, stressing the length of time it would take to bring mothballed fields and equipment back on stream. “You can‘t operate wells at half the potential off-take one day and then double it […]

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Review February 28, 2011

By on 28 Feb 2011 in Peak Oil Review with 0 Comments

Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy Last week the oil markets were dominated by the Libyan uprising. Brent crude nearly touched $120 a barrel on Thursday before settling to close Friday at $112 after President Obama, the IEA, OPEC and the Saudis all assured the markets that the shut-in Libyan crude would […]

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The Future of Air Transportation: Dr. Charles Schlumberger

By on 23 Feb 2011 in Other with 0 Comments
The Future of Air Transportation: Dr. Charles Schlumberger

Video and Presentation at ASPO.TV

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Egypt, a Classic Case of Rapid Net-Export Decline and a Look at Global Net Exports

By on 21 Feb 2011 in Other with 7 Comments
Egypt, a Classic Case of Rapid Net-Export Decline and a Look at Global Net Exports

Based on the ELM, we have concluded that given a production decline in an oil-exporting country, the Net Export Decline (NED) rate will exceed the production-decline rate and the NED rate will accelerate with time – unless the exporting country cuts its oil consumption at the same rate as, or at a faster rate than, the rate of decline in production. Furthermore, the bulk of post-peak Cumulative Net Exports (CNE) tends to be shipped early in the NED period.

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Mustafa Alani, security analyst at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai

By on 21 Feb 2011 in quotes with 0 Comments

“I don’t think any regime is immune.”

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World in Upheaval – Current Developments 2-21-2011

By on 21 Feb 2011 in Other with 0 Comments

So far Libya is the only major oil exporting country in which the upheavals appear likely to threaten oil exports in the near future. Benghazi in eastern Libya has fallen into the hands of the demonstrators and a local tribal chief is threatening to cut off oil exports unless Tripoli stops using violence against demonstrators. Libya exports about 1.5 million b/d most of which goes to Europe.

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Oil and the Global Economy 2-21-2011

By on 21 Feb 2011 in Other with 1 Comment

Given that US gasoline prices inevitably rise from February to the summer driving season as demand increases and more expensive blends are produced, observers are starting to talk about $3.50 gasoline this summer and even $4 if there is trouble in the Middle East or if the Saudis do not come through with their widely anticipated production increase this year.

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Review February 21, 2011

By on 21 Feb 2011 in Peak Oil Review with 0 Comments

Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy Last week oil prices were dominated by a balance between fears that spreading unrest in the Middle East would lead to restrictions on oil exports and concern that Beijing’s efforts to control inflation would slow oil imports. The buildup of stocks at the Cushing, Okla. futures […]

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The peak oil crisis: the 3rd transition

By on 18 Feb 2011 in commentary with 2 Comments

Modern man, the kind with the 1400 cc brain, is said to have been around for about 200,000 years. For the first 190,000 years however, not much of note happened, or at least that we know about. Tools got better – sharper spears and axes – but in general our remote ancestors went through life […]

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Buffalo Shortage – Ed Stein Cartoon

By on 17 Feb 2011 in cartoon with 0 Comments

Review February 14, 2011

By on 14 Feb 2011 in Peak Oil Review with 0 Comments

Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy With the resignation of Egyptian President Mubarak last Friday, NY oil futures fell, closing on Friday at a two-month low of $85.58 a barrel. NY futures had touched a high of $92.19 at the height of the Egyptian crisis. In London, however, Brent crude climbed to […]

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An Oil Shock in 2012?

By on 14 Feb 2011 in commentary with 6 Comments
An Oil Shock in 2012?

The price of oil is once again daily in the news. The western Europe benchmark Brent crude has hovered near $100 / barrel for much of the last month, and the IEA is again warning of the burden of oil consumption. Is this a harbinger of things to come, or a mere statistical blip in a market that is ‘well supplied’? How will events play out in oil markets in the coming year or two?

Certainly, oil prices have surged on the back on strong demand, of which some is structural, and some transient. The northern hemisphere has seen a strikingly cold winter, leading to increased heating oil usage. And the global economy is recovering from a deep recession, with demand bouncing off the recessionary trough. These are, to an extent, passing events. But in many respects, increased prices fundamentally reflect an oil demand that is increasing faster than supply.

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ENERGY AGENCY WARNS OF DANGER FROM HIGH OIL PRICES

By on 10 Feb 2011 in Other with 1 Comment

Peak Oil News Feb 10, 2011 ENERGY AGENCY WARNS OF DANGER FROM HIGH OIL PRICES by Richard Lein PARIS (AFP) – The global recovery will drive oil prices dangerously higher this year, possibly to the level where they could push the economy into a marked slowdown, the IEA warned Thursday. The prospect of rising inflation, […]

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US Senator David Vitter, Republican of Louisiana

By on 7 Feb 2011 in quotes with 0 Comments

“Federal permitting has fallen off a cliff, and the resulting impact on Louisiana families, jobs, and domestic-energy production has caused a lot of pain in coastal Louisiana.”

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Review February 7, 2011

By on 7 Feb 2011 in Peak Oil Review with 0 Comments

Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy NY crude futures traded around $91 a barrel for most of last week before falling on Friday to close out the week at $89.03. In London, Brent crude continued to trade about $10 a barrel higher, closing out the week at $99.83 after touching a recent […]

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