Download the full PDF: Peak Oil Review 12/03/12
1. Oil and the Global Economy
Oil prices were little changed last week, but managed to close out November a few dollars higher than the October closing thereby registering the first monthly increase since August. New York futures ended the week at $88.91 and London at $111.23. Better economic news, including higher US GDP numbers, offset concerns about the coming “fiscal cliff” and bad economic news from the EU. Unrest across much of the Middle East continues to support prices although no specific threats to oil exports are in sight.
The weekly US stocks report contained little of note – US crude imports over the last four weeks have been running about 700,000 b/d lower than last year and distillate inventories, which are way below normal, continue to fall. With global demand for distillates running above what the global oil industry can produce, it seems likely that higher prices or even shortages are in the offing.
US natural gas prices fell 8.7 percent last week to close at $3.64 per million after the EIA reported an unexpected jump of 4 billion cubic feet in inventories and forecasters predicted warmer weather in the immediate future. Natural gas prices were over $4 per million BTUs in mid-November. The price drop since then has caused a return to coal of the part of some utilities.
2. Middle East
With the fighting between Israel and Hamas over for a while, the spotlight shifted to Egypt where new Presidential decrees, which many saw as the assumption of dictatorial powers, brought protesting crowds back to Tahrir Square. These secularist demonstrations were closely followed by Islamist crowds backing the President and shutting down the judicial court that is working on a new constitution. The root of the unrest is an effort by President Morsi and his supporters to push through a new constitution that some protestors fear will turn Egypt into an Islamist state by enshrining religious beliefs and practices in the new constitution. Some observers fear the tensions between Islamists and secularists will soon deteriorate into violence adding yet another dimension to the burgeoning Middle East Crisis. Ethiopia’s efforts to dam the Blue Nile, a project which is 13 percent completed, could deprive Egypt of 25 percent of its water while the dam is filling. The Nile is the only source of water for Egypt’s 84 million people so continued work on the dam is almost certain to lead to more troubles.
The situation in Syria continues to get worse, with the rebels cutting access to the Damascus airport, forcing its closure, in addition to overrunning numerous military bases. The internet and other communications in Syria were out for two days last week but seem have been restored. Government aircraft continue to bomb rebel positions in the Damascus suburbs as the rebels prepare for a final push on the capital.
Reports from Washington suggest that the Assad government may be moving chemical weapons in anticipation of using them against the rebels as a last ditch tactic. If this happens, it is likely to result is some sort of Western intervention to secure the weapons. This development in turn could further increase tensions in the region.
Terrorist bombs continue to go off in Iraq. Some 2,000 Iraqis now have been killed by such attacks since the US pulled out a year ago. If the violence continues it is likely to threaten ambitious plans to increase oil production. Iraq’s production slipped by 200,000 b/d in October a possible harbinger of things to come.
Renewed violence in Jordan is just below the surface as the monarchy that has kept the country relatively stable since 1921 faces a serious threat to its existence. Troubles in Libya, still without any solid governance, continue. The major refinery outside Tripoli is closed periodically by protestors and the chances in increased foreign investment to maintain oil production seem dubious.
There was little change in the Iranian nuclear confrontation last week. The head of the IAEA told the organization’s board that he cannot provide “credible assurance that Tehran is not developing nuclear weapons. Iran appears to be preparing for continued sanctions and is basing its budget exports of 1 million b/d down from 2 million in 2011. Countries continuing to import oil from Iran – India, Turkey, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Malaysia, and South Africa – appear to be making satisfactory progress in cutting their Iranian imports thereby avoiding tough US sanctions laws. The situation for China is still unclear.
In Washington, the US Senate voted harsher sanctions on anyone trading with Iran, a move opposed by the Administration as only complicating negotiations.
Athens avoided going bankrupt for a while longer last week, after its EU creditors agreed to lend it the money to keep functioning. After three weeks of negotiations, the Eurozone and the IMF agreed to $57 billion in loan payments and Greece agreed to series of measures designed to improve its debt posture. Implicit in the deal seems to be some sort of understanding that the creditor nations will eventually forgive a portion of Greece’s mounting debts. The EU also agreed to a restructuring of Spain’s banks.
The bad news for the week was that Eurozone’s unemployment reached a new record in October with another 173,000 out of work. Coupled with this news was a spate of statements be senior EU economic officials to the effect that clear progress is being made in the Greek an Spanish situations and that the situation should get better next year.
The OECD cut its global growth forecasts last week that the debt crisis in Europe is the greatest threat to the world economy. The organization now says that the global economy will grow only 2.9 percent this year and 3.4 percent in 2013 down from the previous forecast of 3.4 and 4.2 percent.
4. The Climate Summit
The UN climate summit opened in Qatar last week with some 17,000 delegates in attendance. China took the lead in stating that economic growth to “eradicate poverty and improving living standards” takes precedence over reducing emissions “for a period of time.” The EU said it was in no position to help developing countries reduce emissions to meet climate objectives. The US said it couldn’t go on the 17 percent reduction target for emissions for 2020.
Accompanying the meeting, the World Bank issued a report saying that extreme weather patterns may become worse if governments fail to reach their climate goals; the World Meteorological Organization reported that this year was the ninth-warmest on record; and the US Intelligence Community chimed in with a report saying that says the consequences of climate change–rising sea levels, severe flooding, droughts, fires, and insect infestations–pose threats greater than those from terrorism ranging from massive food shortages to a rise in armed conflicts.
Some are hopeful that Super storm Sandy might mark a turning point in the climate change debate. So far there is little evidence that this is happening. The US position at the summit did not change markedly, the administration does not have climate change as a priority, and senior Republicans in Congress are still saying they will block any climate change legislation.
Quote of the week
“A group of scientists, scholars and energy activists meeting this week at the University of Texas say they see an impending global decline in oil production. That would mean higher prices, more conservation, an emphasis on alternatives and substantial lifestyle changes.”
- Wayne Slater, Dallas Morning News
The Briefs (clips from recent Peak Oil News dailies are indicated by date and item #)
- For the first year since the futures were created, Brent crude is poised to overtake West Texas Intermediate oil as the world’s most-traded commodity. Daily trading in Brent jumped 14 percent to average 567,000 contracts in the year to Nov. 20 compared with all of 2011, while WTI fell 17 percent to 575,000. (11/26, #4)
- Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali Naimi called for the rationalization of the kingdom’s domestic energy use as a senior energy official warned that oil consumption was growing at ‘a frightening level.” (11/26, #10)
- Russian public oil company Lukoil could make a decision to expand in the Iraqi oil sector through participation in the West Qurna field. Baghdad has considered bringing Lukoil and Gazprom Neft, Gazprom’s oil division, into the West Qurna project in southern Iraq in favor of Exxon. (12/01, #9)
- Ethiopia is driving to complete its massive $4.8 billion Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile amid a long-running dispute with Egypt that will likely worsen in the months ahead unless addressed. Cairo describes this as a threat to Egypt’s national security, heightening tension in the escalating battle for control over the world’s longest river. (12/01, #13)
- Brazilian government-run oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA said it has canceled plans to hire five drilling rigs from Norway’s Ocean Rig UDW Inc. Petrobras said it won’t need as many rigs as it had initially expected, because it won’t have to drill as many wells due to “higher productivity gained through the project wells.” (12/01, #17)
- Natural-gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose 0.6% in September from an upwardly revised August level and was up 3.9% from a year earlier. September output averaged 73.05 billion cubic feet per day, the highest output level on data beginning in January 2005, according to the Energy Information Administration. (12/01, #20)
- The US Department of Energy (DOE) has selected a multi-partner team led by Argonne National Laboratory for an award of up to $120 million over five years to establish a new Batteries and Energy Storage Hub. The award, based on results, is renewable for another 5 years. (12/01, #27)
- The US drilling rig count lost 6 units during the week ended Nov. 30, with the total number of rotary rigs reaching 1,811, Baker Hughes Inc. reported. This compares with 1,993 rigs working in the comparable week last year. (12/01, #28)
- The melting of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets has raised sea levels by 11.1 millimeters since 1992, a fifth of the total rise which threatens low-lying regions around the globe, a new study said. (11/30, #4)
- China was among major economic powers at a climate conference in Qatar saying aggressive low-carbon initiatives could inhibit their wealth. (11/30, #5)
- Levant LNG Marketing, a unit of Pangea LNG BV, has concluded a cost-sharing agreement with Israel’s Tamar Partners, Tel Aviv, that marks progress toward the export of LNG from Tamar and Dalit fields 60 miles off Israel in the Levantine basin. (11/30, #7)
- India’s economy slowed further in the three months to September, with year-on-year growth dropping to 5.3 per cent from 5.5 per cent the previous quarter. The slowdown takes growth back to the same level as the first quarter and adds to challenges facing the government as it struggles to push controversial economic reforms through parliament. (11/30, #12)
- U.S. net exports of gasoline and distillate fuel (diesel/heating oil) rose in September from month-earlier levels, the federal Energy Information Administration said. Net gasoline exports averaged 362,000 barrels a day, up 19,000 barrels a day from August and the highest level in any month since December 2011. (11/30, #13)
- The US birth rate hit a record low last year, led by the decline in child-bearing among foreign-born women, according to a Pew study. The overall US birth rate decreased by 8% between 2007-10, and by 6% among US-born women, found the data. The rate fell sharpest for those hardest hit by the recession: 14% among foreign-born women and 23% among Mexican immigrant women in particular. The 2011 rate was the lowest since 1920, when such records began. (11/30, #15)
- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has arrived in Cuba, where he had months of cancer therapy, for further medical treatment. Mr Chavez, who was re-elected in October, is due to be sworn in for a third term in January. (11/29, #13)
- As China readies for the water-intensive process of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, to tap into massive reserves of shale natural gas, concerns are rising regarding the country’s already limited water supply. China has 25.08 trillion cubic meters of exploitable onshore shale-gas reserves, China’s Ministry of Land Resources has said. But most of that gas lies in areas plagued by water shortages. (11/29, #14)
- General Motors Co. and its joint venture partners in China say they will spend 6.6 billion yuan ($1 billion) to build a third car plant to keep up with demand for vehicles in the world’s biggest auto market. (11/29, #15)
- Mississippi River barge traffic is slowing as the worst drought in five decades combines with a seasonal dry period to push water levels to a near-record low, prompting shippers to seek alternatives. (11/29, #19)
- An Oklahoma energy company said there wasn’t enough interest to move ahead with a planned 1,300-mile oil pipeline from the Bakken oil play. In April, Oklahoma natural gas company Oneok Partners announced plans to get into crude oil delivery business by unveiling plans for a pipeline from the Bakken formation in the northern Plains states to the Cushing, Okla., market hub. The project would’ve carried as much as 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day. (11/29, #21)
- The US Arctic Alaska Petroleum Province holds mean estimates of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and gas resources of nearly 30 billion barrels of oil, about 179 trillion cubic feet of nonassociated gas, and 40 trillion cubic feet of associated gas, according to a new assessment published by the US Geological Survey (USGS). (11/28, #5)
- China is mulling changes to its one-child policy, a former family planning official said, with government advisory bodies drafting proposals in the face of a rapidly ageing society in the world’s most populous nation. Proposed changes would allow for urban couples to have a second child, even if one of the parents is themselves not an only child. (11/28, #14)
- Yemen is facing a fuel crisis because of repeated attacks on an oil pipeline feeding a major refinery in Aden, a state-owned operator declared. The 272-mile Marib oil pipeline, which feeds the country’s Aden refinery, has been attacked repeatedly by saboteurs this month. It carries about 110,000 barrels of oil per day from oil fields in Marib and Shabwa provinces in central Yemen. (11/27, #4)
- Oil & Natural Gas Corp.’s plan to pay as much as $5 billion to ConocoPhillips for a stake in a Kazakhstan oil project could herald more such deals by Indian energy companies seeking to offset declining domestic production in the face of rising energy demand. (11/27, #8)
- While environmental regulation and disappointing drilling tests have held back the development of shale gas reserves in Europe, Algeria is using tax breaks to encourage exploration. Pipelines under the Mediterranean to Spain and Italy already link Africa’s largest gas exporter into Europe’s grid. The North African nation is holding talks with Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) over shale. (11/26, #14)
- A large tanker carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) is set to become the first ship of its type to sail across the Arctic. Icebreakers are required to escort the tanker. The carrier, Ob River, left Norway in November and has sailed north of Russia on its way to Japan. The specially equipped tanker is due to arrive in early December and will shave 20 days off the regular journey. The owners say that changing climate conditions and a volatile gas market make the Arctic transit profitable. (11/26, #22)