Concerns are rising that the predictions of the oil markets coming back into balance later this year are wrong and that lower oil prices are ahead. Oil production is not falling as fast as predicted. Some outages are coming to a close and the growing glut of oil products could be as bad as last year’s crude glut. Many analysts now are talking about prices falling below $40 in the next few months and a few are even talking about a return to the $30 level. Although US crude stocks have been falling of late, the growth in the inventories of refined products continues to grow. Europe is running out of storage space for refined products which would force a cut in refining and result in lower demand for crude. Increased refining to support the summer driving season in the US has only another few weeks to run before the increased demand for gasoline comes to an end. The US oil rig count was up for the 6th time in 7 weeks and North Dakota reported that its oil production increased slightly in May.
Archive for October, 2013
On October 19, 1973, the Organization of Arab Oil Exporting Countries (OAPEC) proclaimed an embargo of oil exports to the United States, in response to U.S. support for Israel in the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. The embargo, which was accompanied by cuts in overall production by OAPEC countries, lasted until March 1974. Oil prices shot up […]
By Tom Whipple 1. Oil and the Global Economy New York oil prices fell last week during volatile trading, closing Friday at $102.02 amidst concerns about the US government shutdown and the possibility of a US debt default later this week. London crude, however, which is more concerned with problems in exports from Libya and […]
By Tom Whipple 1. Oil and the Global Economy The price drop which began in early September continued through last Tuesday, but reversed on Wednesday following the news that the southern leg of the Keystone pipeline would be opening before the end of the year. New York oil traded around $103 on Thursday, then on […]
By Steve Andrews. Early last week, Shell Oil announced it was shutting down its oil shale research project in western Colorado. Combine their departure with Chevron’s exit back in February 2012 and you can count another nail in oil shale’s coffin. Yet since this unconventional resource ranks among the largest in the world, estimated by […]
By Tom Whipple 1. Oil and the Global Economy Oil prices were little changed last week with New York crude trading around $103 a barrel and London around $108. While several of the usual factors moved prices last week – stronger Chinese manufacturing numbers, a falling dollar, and a rebound in Libyan exports – most […]