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Peak Oil Review – 30 Nov 2015

Oil prices were little changed last week despite the the downing of the Russian warplane which temporarily sent prices higher on fears of a wider conflict affecting prices. At week’s end New York futures were down 19 cents for the week at $41.71 and London’s Brent was up 20 cents at $44.86. For November, oil prices will be down about 9 percent. There seems to be general agreement among observers that prices are headed still lower. Moscow announced that it will not be sending a high-level official to the OPEC meeting thereby foreclosing on the hints that Russia and OPEC were about to come up with a deal to cut production and raise prices.

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The $30 Oil Cliff Threatening Russia’s Economy

(Bloomberg) For Russia, $30 is the number to watch. Crude prices at that level will push the economy to depths that would threaten the nation’s financial system, according to 15 of 27 respondents in a Bloomberg survey. Lower prices for the fuel are next year’s biggest risk for Russia, which is unprepared to ride out another shock on the oil market, most economists said. Other dangers for 2016 include geopolitics, strains in the banking industry and the ruble, according to the poll of 27 analysts.

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Could Cuts in CAPEX Be the Catalyst For Growth in Oil Prices?

Could Cuts in CAPEX Be the Catalyst For Growth in Oil Prices?

(RigZone.com) North American upstream companies continue to slash spending but demand growth could turn that around within the next 18 to 20 months. Cuts to capital spending in the North American exploration and production (E&P) sector is a stark reminder that during much of the year companies have had to tighten their belts in response to dismal crude oil prices. Estimates show that cuts have hit 30 percent in 2015, and could drop another 20 percent in 2016.

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A Surprising Look at Oil Consumption

(PeakOilBarrel.com) The EIA publishes oil consumption numbers for all major nations. However they have data for most nations only through 2013. They do have data for some nations through 2014. Nevertheless a lot can be gleaned from just looking at those consumption numbers.

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Ecstrat analyst on US shale oil production decline

“U.S. production is about to have a Wile E. Coyote moment where it literally falls off a cliff. One-hundred-and-twenty-thousand barrels, maybe even next month, will drop off…. The supply and demand mismatch will probably come in 2017.”

Emad Mostaque, analyst with London-based consultancy Ecstrat

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Peak Oil Review – 23 Nov 2015

New York oil lost 35 cents last week closing at $40.39 a barrel after having dipped just before settlement to $38.99, the lowest price since August. In London Brent closed up 1.1 percent for the week at $44.66. Prices were weaker in the US as nationwide crude stocks climbed by 252,000 barrels, but stocks at Cushing, Ok storage depot rose by 1.8 million barrels. The US rig count was down by ten last week, after a two-rig increase the week before. Russia and the Saudis continue to pump at or near maximum capacity. Most brokers are expecting that Iran will be back into the markets in the first quarter of 2016 at about 500,000 b/d day to start.

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Figure 1. From Wikipedia: The price P of a product is determined by a balance between production at each price (supply S) and the desires of those with purchasing power at each price (demand D). The diagram shows a positive shift in demand from D1 to D2, resulting in an increase in price (P) and quantity sold (Q) of the product.

Why “supply and demand” doesn’t work for oil

(OurFiniteWorld.com) The traditional understanding of supply and demand works in some limited cases–will a manufacturer make red dresses or blue dresses? The manufacturer’s choice doesn’t make much difference to the economic system as a whole, except perhaps in the amount of red and blue dye sold, so it is easy to accommodate.

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How Exporting U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas Will Transform the Politics of Global Energy

(Wall Street Journal) The U.S. energy trade has been in the news often recently, with questions such as whether industry will be allowed to send oil overseas or import it via a certain pipeline from Canada. Seemingly forgotten is the historic milestone that will occur early next year when a tanker for the first time ever sets sail from the U.S. lower 48 to deliver liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the global market.

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Bloomberg columnist on shale oil and prices

“The message from oil services firms is that shale drillers will not simply be able to turn the tap back on again once prices rise. Halliburton said on its earnings call last month that pressure pumping equipment currently sitting idle was being cannibalized for parts while the stuff still being used was being worked to its limits. And the falling backlog of uncompleted wells will also begin to make an impact.”

Liam Denning, Bloomberg View columnist

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Peak Oil Review – 16 Nov 2015

Crude oil prices fell by 8 percent in New York and London last week, closing at $40.74 and $43.61 respectively. Continued growth in global crude stocks and uncertain economic outlooks for China and the US are still seen as the cause of the price slump. Short covering by speculators who believed we had already reached the bottom of the slump and a strong US dollar contributed to the decline. On Friday the IEA reported that at the end of September global crude stocks were at a new high of at least 3 billion barrels and growing. The Agency is not able to track stocks in smaller countries so actual storage is somewhat higher.

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IEA expects world oil demand growth to slow in 2016

(Oil & Gas Journal) World oil demand growth is forecast to ease closer to a long-term trend of 1.2 million b/d in 2016 as supportive factors that have recently fueled consumption—such as post-recessionary bounces in some countries and sharply falling crude oil prices—are expected to fade, noted the International Energy Agency in its monthly Oil Market Report for November.

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An Oil-Soaked Globe as Production Keeps Climbing and Demand Falls

(NY Times) Houston— Such is the state of the oil industry these days that there is sometimes nowhere to put the oil. Off the coast of Texas, a line of roughly 40 tankers has formed, waiting to unload their crude or, in some cases, for a willing buyer to come along. Similar scenes are playing out off the coasts of Singapore and China and in the Persian Gulf.

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Oil Tankers Are Filling Up As Global Storage Space Runs Low

(oilprice.com) The rebound in oil prices is still not here, and new data suggests that it will take some more time before the markets start to balance out.

Global supplies are still too large to justify a significant rally in oil prices. The latest indicator that the glut of oil has yet to ease comes from the FT, which concludes that there is 100 million barrels of oil sitting in oil tankers. Oil has piled up in tankers that are floating at sea, as onshore storage space begins to dwindle.

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U.S. shale oil basins to decline

(UPI) Federal review expects most of the lucrative shale basins in the United States are expected to post declines in crude oil production. File photo by Gary C. Caskey/UPI WASHINGTON, Nov. 10 (UPI) — Only the Permian shale basin in the southern United States is expected to record a year-on-year increase in oil production, federal data show.

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Saudi Arabia will not stop pumping to boost oil prices

(CNBC) Saudi Arabia is determined to stick to its policy of pumping enough oil to protect its global market share, despite the financial pain inflicted on the kingdom’s economy.

Officials have told the Financial Times that the world’s largest exporter will produce enough oil to meet customer demand, indicating that the kingdom is in no mood to change tack ahead of the December 4 meeting in Vienna of the producers’ cartel OPEC.

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