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Oil! Massive shale discovery in Texas

By on 8 Sep 2016 in news, notable posts with 0 Comments
Oil! Massive shale discovery in Texas

(CNN) Apache ( APA ) revealed the huge find this week after more than two years of stealthily buying up land, extensive geological research and rigorous testing.

The Houston company estimates the discovery, dubbed “Alpine High,” could be worth at least $8 billion.

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OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report August 2016

By on 22 Aug 2016 in news, notable posts with 0 Comments
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report August 2016

(peakoilbarrel.com) When oil fell below $30 a barrel earlier this year, banks turned away from lending to energy companies. The price of crude has bounced back more than 80% from its February low, but banks are still wary.

Big banks cut loans to the energy sector by about 3% in the second quarter over all and some individual lenders pulled back much more, according to an analysis of July and August securities filings by Barclays analysts.

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Oil prices slip as short-covering rally fizzles

By on 8 Aug 2016 in news, notable posts with 0 Comments
Oil prices slip as short-covering rally fizzles

(Reuters) A worker walks at Nahr Bin Umar oil field, north of Basra, Iraq December 21, 2015. Oil prices dipped on Friday, ending a two-day rally, as a glut of crude and refined products weighed on markets and investors eyed a possible stutter in China’s imports.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 fetched $41.74 per barrel at 0930 GMT (0530 ET), down 19 cents from their last close, after trading as low as $41.44 earlier in the day. They were on track roughly to break even on the week.

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Analysis

Oil glut seen extending into 2017 on weaker demand

By on 13 Sep 2016 in analysis, notable posts with 0 Comments
Oil glut seen extending into 2017 on weaker demand

(Toronto Star) The much-anticipated rebalancing of oil markets appears to be a bit further away after the International Energy Agency revised its forecast, trimming its expectations for the growth in oil demand and citing near-record production by OPEC’s Middle East exporters.

The IEA said Tuesday that global oil demand is rising at a slower pace than expected, lowering its forecast by 100,000 barrels a day to an increase of 1.3 million barrels a day in 2016 and 1.2 million barrels a day in 2017.

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Are Shale-Oil Companies Starting to Weather the Crude Slide?

By on 5 Aug 2016 in analysis, notable posts with 0 Comments
Are Shale-Oil Companies Starting to Weather the Crude Slide?

(Wall Street Journal) A truck used to carry sand for fracking is washed in a truck stop on February 4, 2015 in Odessa, Texas. … Debt from U.S. shale companies has held its ground even as oil prices have beat a fast retreat, a sign the firms may have adapted to an era of cheaper crude and could remain key suppliers to the market.

A build-up in stockpiles of oil has renewed downward pressure on prices: U.S. crude is now at roughly $42 the barrel, 14% below where it was at the beginning of June, when it appeared to be rallying.

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The One Chart That Shows Why Oil Prices Have To Keep Rising

By on 28 Jun 2016 in analysis, notable posts with 0 Comments
The One Chart That Shows Why Oil Prices Have To Keep Rising

(oilprice.com) There has been a lot of pessimism among oil investors in recent months, and indeed the bear market over the last couple of years in black gold has destroyed many nest eggs. With that said, oil investors who have run for the hills could find themselves regretting that decision in the months and years to come.

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Viewpoints

What Hubbert Got Really Wrong About Oil

By on 8 Sep 2016 in notable posts, viewpoints with 0 Comments
What Hubbert Got Really Wrong About Oil

(Forbes) If you happen to be someone who is interested in the topic of “peak oil”, you know the name M. King Hubbert.

The history of the scientific study of peak oil dates to the 1950s, when Hubbert, a Shell geophysicist, reported on studies he had undertaken regarding the production rates of oil and gas fields.

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Is the Oil Industry Dying?

By on 10 Aug 2016 in notable posts, viewpoints with 1 Comment
Is the Oil Industry Dying?

(psmag.com) Talking about “peak oil” can feel very last decade. In fact, the question is still current. Petroleum markets are so glutted and prices are so low that most industry commenters think any worry about future oil supplies is pointless. The glut and price dip, however, are hardly indications of a healthy industry; instead, they are symptoms of an increasing inability to match production cost, supply, and demand in a way that’s profitable for producers but affordable for society. Is this what peak oil looks like?

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The Death of OPEC

By on 26 Jul 2016 in notable posts, viewpoints with 0 Comments
The Death of OPEC

(Project Syndicate) The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is dead. Saudi Arabia killed it. Now, OPEC is just a toothless zombie, attracting attention, but without having any impact on the living.

Few have noticed OPEC’s demise for a simple reason: it never really had the impact that it was widely perceived to have. It was never actually a cartel, possessing monopolistic market power. Anyone who thought otherwise was mistakenly attributing to it Saudi Arabia’s market power.

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Other Recent Posts

Statement by the Center for Climate and Security on the impact of climate change on US national security

By on 19 Sep 2016 in quotes with 0 Comments

““There are few easy answers, but one thing is clear: the current trajectory of climatic change presents a strategically-significant risk to U.S. national security, and inaction is not a viable option.”

Statement by the Center for Climate and Security, a Washington-based think tank, signed by more than a dozen former senior military and national security officials

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Peak Oil Review – 19 Sep 2016

By on 19 Sep 2016 in Peak Oil Review with 0 Comments

Oil prices continued to fall last week, closing Friday in New York at $43.39 and $46 in London. There was considerable news tending to push prices lower. OPEC and the IEA revised their forecasts for the next year and concluded that the imbalance in the oil markets would continue into 2017 vs. predictions that the gap would close this fall. This coupled with increased Iranian production; the possibility that Libya and Nigeria oil production will soon rebound; the report that Bakken shale oil production grew in July and EIA’s admission that US oil production is not falling as rapidly as forecast; all contributed to the weaker oil markets.

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Analyst from Barclays talks about the 2017 industry outlook

By on 12 Sep 2016 in quotes with 0 Comments

“2017 is the sweet spot for integrated companies. It took two to three years to adjust to the drop in oil prices, and a lot of the efficiencies introduced in recent years will roll into 2017 when projects kick in and free cash flow will improve.”

Lydia Rainforth, analyst with Barclays

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Peak Oil Review – 12 Sep 2016

By on 12 Sep 2016 in Peak Oil Review with 0 Comments

It was a volatile week, with New York futures starting out at around $43 a barrel on Monday, climbing to $47.50 on Thursday and then falling to close at $45.88 on Friday. The major event last week was the EIA status report, which came out on Thursday, reporting a near-record fall in the US crude stocks of 14.5 million barrels from the week before last. This was the largest weekly drop in 17 years and set off a short-lived buying frenzy. Traders ignored the impact of tropical storm Hermine which was thrashing around in the Gulf that week, closing production platforms and delaying tanker arrivals along the Gulf and East Coasts. The EIA reported that US crude imports were down by 12.6 million barrels from the week before, and that US refineries were running at 93.7 percent of capacity to satisfy US gasoline consumption demand over Labor Day. By Friday, traders realized that the crude drop was likely a one-off event and not the beginning of a trend.

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The state of new oil & gas exploration

By on 5 Sep 2016 in quotes with 0 Comments

New discoveries from conventional drilling are “at rock bottom. There will definitely be a strong impact on oil and gas supply, and especially oil.”

Nils-Henrik Bjurstroem, manager with Oslo-based consultants Rystad Energy

“…seriously, there is no exploration going on today.”

Per Wullf, CEO of offshore drilling company Seadrill Ltd.

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Peak Oil Review – 5 Sep 2016

By on 5 Sep 2016 in Peak Oil Review with 0 Comments

The struggle between fundamentals and speculators’ dreams of much higher prices continued last week with oil futures falling through Thursday and then rebounding on Friday to close at $44.44 in NY and $46.83 in London, down about $2.50 for the week. The fundamentals include growing stockpiles, increasing US and Canadian rig counts, and fears that US interest rates will be going up shortly which will lead to a stronger dollar and lower oil prices.

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Vienna Technology University’s study on Mayan civilization and water resource constraints

By on 29 Aug 2016 in quotes with 0 Comments

“When it comes to scarce resources, the simplest solutions on the surface are not always the best ones. You have to change people’s behavior, reassess society’s dependency on this resource and reduce consumption—otherwise society may, in fact, be more vulnerable to catastrophes than safer, despite clever solutions.”

Linda Kuil, Vienna Technology University, in a study on Mayan civilization and water resource constraint

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Peak Oil Review – 29 Aug 2016

By on 29 Aug 2016 in Peak Oil Review with 0 Comments

Oil futures fell some 3 percent in New York and 2 percent in London last week, settling at $47.64 and $49.92 respectively. The markets have become volatile of late with traders reacting to nearly every API or EIA report and every utterance from the Saudi or Iranian oil ministers. Last week the markets were pressured by numerous comments pro and con the possibility of an oil production freeze next month; a jump in Chinese diesel exports; comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen that there could be a price-depressing rate increase sooner-rather-than-later; increased exports from Iraq via Kurdistan; the possibility of a ceasefire in Nigeria; sluggish US and Chinese economies; and a jump in US crude and oil product inventories.

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Managing Director at ARC Financial Corp on the definition of “rig productivity”

By on 22 Aug 2016 in quotes with 0 Comments

“The notion of ‘rig productivity’ has to be taken with caution. We can’t assume that the best-posted performance in the field is the norm for all wells…There is a statistical distortion at play. Starting in late 2014, the severe downturn in oil prices forced the industry to park three-quarters of their rigs and ‘high-grade’ their inventory of prospects. Producers focused on only their best rocks, drilling with only the most efficient rigs. All the low productivity stuff was culled out of the statistical sampling, skewing the average productivity numbers much higher.”

Peter Tertzakian, Chief Energy Economist, and Managing Director at ARC Financial Corp

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Peak Oil Review – 22 Aug 2016

By on 22 Aug 2016 in Peak Oil Review with 0 Comments

Oil prices climbed another $3 a barrel last week as traders continued to hope that not only will OPEC and Russia agree to a production freeze next month, but that it will eventually result in the elimination of global oversupply and reduce global stockpiles to a normal level. The week closes with New York futures at $48.52 and London at $50.88.

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