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A communique from 15,000 scientists from 184 countries assessing the world’s latest responses to various environmental threats

“Humanity has failed to make sufficient progress in generally solving foreseen environmental challenges, and alarmingly, most of them are getting far worse. Soon it will be too late to shift course away from our failing trajectory.”

A communique from 15,000 scientists from 184 countries assessing the world’s latest responses to various environmental threats (11/14)

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The Future of Self driving Vehicles

“There isn’t a viable alternative to fossil fuels on the horizon. We’re not buying into the long-term demand destruction for oil.”

 Alasdair McKinnon, portfolio manager at Scottish Investment Trust

“Vehicles of the future will no longer be driven by humans because in 15 to 20 years — at the latest — human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways. The tipping point will come when 20 to 30 percent of vehicles are fully autonomous. Countries will look at the accident statistics and figure out that human drivers are causing 99.9 percent of the accidents.”

Bob Lutz, former executive with major auto company

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Portfolio Manager for Century Management on the Future of US Shale Oil

“There’s a complacency that shale is going to continue to produce at the kind of volumes that we had in the past…If the world keeps believing we’ve got surplus oil as far as the eye can see—which I don’t believe—then the reality is going to smack everybody in the face. And it will be hard to catch up.”

Jim Brilliant, portfolio manager for Century Management

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Batteries & Offshore Oil Drilling in Gulf of Mexico

“There’s going to be a lot of excitement around batteries in the next five years. And I would say that the country will get blanketed with [battery] projects.”

Spencer Hanes, Duke Energy business development managing director

“In today’s low-price energy environment, providing the offshore industry access to the maximum amount of opportunities possible is part of our strategy to spur local and regional economic dynamism and job creation and a pillar of President Trump’s plan to make the United States energy dominant.”

Ryan Zinke, US Secretary of the Interior, after announcing a record 77 million acres for lease in the Gulf of Mexico

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The Global LNG Price Dynamics

[In commenting on India forcing ExxonMobil to renegotiate LNG prices] “This trend is overall a negative for sellers, as they are forced to provide more flexibility to buyers’ needs to maintain their markets. The risk of price renegotiations will become more acute over the next couple years as spot LNG prices remain depressed, even if oil-linked prices rise. The elephant in the room will be how negotiations play out with traditional markets in Japan and Korea, and especially the Chinese national oil companies.”

Saul Kavonic, analyst with Wood Mackenzie

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The US Delusion with respect to Energy Abundance

“…The US is deluding itself when it comes to energy abundance (generally) and oil (specifically). Yet that’s not what we hear from the cheerleaders in the industry or in our media. From them, we hear a silver-tongued narrative of coming riches — a narrative that contains some truth, some myth, and a lot of fantasy. It’s those last two parts — the myths and fantasies — that are going to seriously hurt many investors, as well cause a lot of extremely poor policy and investment decisions.”

Chris Martenson, commentator at www.peakprosperity.com, former investments manager

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NAFTA and Energy Trade Across North American Borders

“Any changes that disrupt energy trade across our North American borders, reduce investment protection or revert to high tariffs and trade barriers that preceded NAFTA could put at risk tens of millions of jobs.”

From top oil and gas trade groups from the US, Canada. and Mexico, in a joint position paper released last month prior to new NAFTA-related talks.

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Drilling off the Atlantic Coast

“It will likely be years before the oil and gas industry can start drilling off the Atlantic coast, even in the best-case scenario. But even then, it is unclear if there will be any interest. The Atlantic has not been explored very much, and as a result, the exact nature of the oil and gas reserves in place is unknown. That likely means that development costs will be high. If oil prices fail to rise much from current levels, it is not at all clear that the Atlantic will be very competitive.”

Nick Cunningham, Oilprice.com

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The Correlation between Interest Rates and Oil Prices

“When interest rates fall, this tends to allow oil prices to rise, and thus allows increased production. This postpones the Peak Oil crisis, but makes the ultimate crisis worse…Falling interest rates between 1981 and 2014 are one of the things that allowed Peak Oil to be postponed for many years…. Peak Economy is likely not very far away. We do not need to encourage it, by raising interest rates and selling securities held by the Federal Reserve. We badly need more people to understand the connection between interest rates and oil prices, and how important it is that interest rates not rise.”

Gail Tverberg, actuary and commentator (8/16)

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The State of Nuclear Power Plants

[After two nuclear plants in South Carolina were cancelled:] “We continue to believe that the problem with new nuclear (small modular units excepted) power plants is not that they generate electricity with nuclear fission. The difficulty is economic. The nuclear units are expensive, base load generating units in a world where production of electricity is becoming less expensive and increasingly decentralized. Base load power plants (and especially nuclear ones) are, in general, must-run, inflexible price takers. Going forward there will be less need for those facilities regardless of how they are fueled. Furthermore, the builder of a nuclear plant must bet an enormous sum on the need for electricity a decade hence, when the plant is completed. Given the uncertainty in power demand and prices, that is a gamble uncompensated in the regulatory process.

By Leonard Hyman and William Tilles for Oilprice.com

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Senior Vice President of Maritime Services at Maersk Line Ltd. on Price Break Point for Arctic Oil

“The fact is, oil at $50 a barrel makes Arctic oil uncompetitive. In terms of what’s going to happen down the road, I saw a World Bank report placed the oil in nominal dollars at $80 a barrel in 2030. That’s still way below break the price for Arctic oil.”

Stephen M. Carmel, senior vice president of Maritime Services at Maersk Line Ltd. (7/21)

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Divergent views on Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles

“What oil companies and car companies are saying [about future sales of plug-in vehicles] is diverging.  This is a trillion-dollar question, and someone is going to be wrong.”

Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport analysis for Bloomberg New Energy Finance

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President Trump on US Energy Dominance and Exports

“We will be dominant.  We will export American energy all over the world, all around the globe. These energy exports will create countless jobs for our people, and provide true energy security to our friends, partners, and allies across the globe.”

U.S. President Donald Trump, in a speech [Ed. Note: possible hyperbole?]

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Bloomberg’s New Energy Finance lead author on the unstoppable expansion of renewable electricity

“This year’s [New Energy Outlook] report suggests that the greening of the world’s electricity system is unstoppable, thanks to rapidly falling costs for solar and wind power, and a growing role for batteries, including those in electric vehicles, in balancing supply and demand.”

Seb Henbest, Bloomberg’s New Energy Finance lead author

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President of the League of Conservation Voters on litigation regarding Arctic and Atlantic permanent protections

“President Trump is trying to erase all the climate and environmental progress we’ve made. We aren’t about to go down without a fight, and by joining this litigation, we are signaling to Congress our resolute and growing commitment to defending the Arctic and Atlantic permanent protections and halting the expansion of risky offshore drilling.”

Gene Karpinski, President of the League of Conservation Voters

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