Helping America Navigate a New Energy Reality

quotes

Senior Research Geologist at the U.S. Geological Survey on the Smith Bay, Alaska oilfield

By on 20 Mar 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

–David Houseknecht, a senior research geologist at the U.S. Geological Survey, says the Smith Bay discovery in Alaska seems to have incredible potential. Then he adds: “But it’s the last one you’d want to bet your retirement money on.” (3/15)

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Quotes from CERAWeek

By on 13 Mar 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“I want the states to see the EPA as a friend, as a partner, and not an adversary. Regulators ought not to use their authority to pick winners and losers.”

EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt

U.S. crude oil output “could go pretty high. But it’s going to have to be done in a measured way, or else we kill the market.”

Harold Hamm, CEO Continental Resources

“As an industry, we’re not investing enough for supply growth to keep up with demand growth.” Decreased spending, particularly in the resource-rich (but expensive) offshore, may cause supply to plateau or decline as global demand is rising, Hess said. A supply deficit is possible as soon as three years, and within five, when the reductions in capital investments should begin to show up in falling offshore supply, Hess said. “We’re not investing enough to keep the offshore investment pipeline full.”

John Hess, CEO Hess oil

“People might have drilled [the Eagle Ford} up very fast in the last two to three years, and they had to because they were measured on multiples of growth and had to grow very quickly. They probably regret it because they learned so much more about how to complete these wells more efficiently today than even what we knew two or three years ago.”

Ryan Lance, CEO ConocoPhillips

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Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com on why low oil prices will keep oil in the ground

By on 6 Mar 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“Keep it in the ground’ has been the mantra of environmental groups worried about climate change. But it could be low oil prices and the lack of competitiveness of Canada’s oil sands that keep those reserves in the ground.”

Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

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Lead researcher in a Harvard battery project and a professor of materials and energy technologies on energy storage cost targets

By on 27 Feb 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“If you can get anywhere near the cost target [$100 per kilowatt-hour of energy storage] then you can change the world. It becomes cost effective to put storage batteries in so many places – this research puts us one step closer to reaching that target.”

Michael Aziz, lead researcher in a Harvard battery project and a professor of materials and energy technologies

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CEO of Graves & Co. on the impact of current prices on the state of the oil & gas sector

By on 20 Feb 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“There has been no recovery in offshore and international oil and gas activity with the price of crude in the $50 range … for companies with significant exposure, offshore and internationally, the downturn in the oil and gas industry is not over, and job cuts may continue.”

John Graves, CEO of Graves & Co.

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Carbon Tracker Initiative on solar energy vs. fossil fuel energy market share dynamics

By on 13 Feb 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“Fossil fuels may lose 10 percent of market share to PV and EVs within a single decade. This may not sound much but it can be the beginning of the end once demand starts to decline.”

Carbon Tracker Initiative

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Senior managing mirector at Evercore ISI on labor shortage of oilfield service companies

By on 6 Feb 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“Oilfield service companies have pressed fresh (green) blood into service amidst a vigorous ramp up in activity, and failure/HSE rates have already felt the negative impact. Not only is labor a bottleneck, it is shaping up to be the primary bottleneck in the early stages of the [North American] recovery…E&P’s will throw enough money at the North American labor problem to bring the sector back to equilibrium, sacrificing capital efficiency to hit production targets.”

James West, a senior managing director at Evercore ISI

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John Kemp, Reuters energy columnist, on Trump administration’s pipeline approval policies

By on 30 Jan 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“The blunt reality for the Trump administration is that there is no way to make pipeline approvals conditional on the use of U.S. steel without undermining the goal of fair market access for U.S. exporters.”

John Kemp, Reuters energy columnist

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Paul Frankel, economist, on the nature of the petroleum industry

By on 23 Jan 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“The basic feature of the petroleum industry … that matters most is that it is not self-adjusting.” The industry has “an inherent tendency to extreme crises” and “hectic prosperity is followed all too swiftly by complete collapse.”

Paul Frankel, economist, “Essentials of Petroleum,” 1946 (from energy columnist John Kemp)

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President of American Petroleum Institute on the regulatory environment impacting the petroleum industry

By on 9 Jan 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“We must break from the recent past [and] re-examine the regulatory onslaught of the last few years that has proposed or imposed some 145 regulations and other executive actions on our industry, and instead work to implement smart energy regulations.”

Jack Gerard, President, American Petroleum Institute

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California Governor Jerry Brown on California’s contribution to mitigating climate change

By on 2 Jan 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“California can make a significant contribution to advancing the cause of dealing with climate change, irrespective of what goes on in Washington. I wouldn’t underestimate California’s resolve if everything moves in this extreme climate denial direction. Yes, we will take action.”

California Governor Jerry Brown

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Angus Rodger, Wood Mackenzie’s research director for upstream oil and gas

By on 26 Dec 2016 in quotes with 0 Comments

“If we stay (at $55 a barrel), the world’s biggest oil companies start to make money again. If we go back down to $50 (or lower) in 2017…then those companies are in the negative territory and they go back into survival mode where they have been in the last two years.”

Angus Rodger, Wood Mackenzie’s research director for upstream oil and gas

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Energy researcher for IHS Markit on incentives for electric vehicle adoption

By on 12 Dec 2016 in quotes with 0 Comments

“Significant advances in battery technology, financial support from governments, regulations and values of Millennials will be key factors leading to increases in electric vehicle adoption.”

Jim Burkhard, energy researcher for IHS Markit

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Chief Energy Economist and Managing Director, ARC Financial Corp. on the global oil outlook

By on 5 Dec 2016 in quotes with 0 Comments

“The OPEC drama is behind us (for now) with the cartel and its friends agreeing to a peak supply. But the topic that’s talked about behind the scenes in Viennese cafes is that of ‘peak demand.’ Every pundit has an opinion about when peak demand will happen. Articles, podcasts, and snappy videos mostly debate in what year our 150-year addiction to the product will begin to wane. Some think it’s as early as 2020; the authoritative International Energy Agency conjectures 2040.”

Peter Tertzakian, Chief Energy Economist and Managing Director, ARC Financial Corp.

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Head of exploration research at Wood Mackenzie on conventional oil exploration

By on 28 Nov 2016 in quotes with 0 Comments

“People do tend to look at the total volumes [of conventional oil] being added in recent years and conclude that we are running out of subsurface potential, I find that unlikely. It’s our view that conventional exploration is a perfectly viable growth and renewal option, particularly for those that are good at it. In reality, a lot of exploration’s recent decline is nothing more than the fact that it’s drilling fewer wells in the downturn.”

Andrew Latham, head of exploration research at Wood Mackenzie

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An Arctic specialist at Rutgers University commenting on temperature behavior in the Arctic Region

By on 21 Nov 2016 in quotes with 0 Comments

“It’s about 20C [36 degrees Fahrenheit] warmer than normal over most of the Arctic Ocean, along with cold anomalies of about the same magnitude over north-central Asia…. The extreme behavior of the Arctic in 2016 seems to be in no hurry to quit.”

Jennifer Francis, an Arctic specialist at Rutgers University

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Trump’s potential impact on the global oil markets

By on 14 Nov 2016 in quotes with 0 Comments

“I don’t think President Trump will have a big impact on oil demand or output. He’s made statements, but we haven’t seen any thought-out policies. We will have to wait for him to get a team in place and come up with policies.”

Mike Wittner, head of oil-market research at Societe Generale SA in New York

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Chief Financial Officer for Royal Dutch Shell & Executive Director of the International Energy Agency on oil markets

By on 7 Nov 2016 in quotes with 0 Comments

“We’ve long been of the opinion that demand will peak before supply. And that peak may be somewhere between 5 and 15 years hence, and it will be driven by efficiency and substitution, more than offsetting the new demand for transport.”

Simon Henry, Chief Financial Officer for Royal Dutch Shell

“The oil demand growth is not coming from cars; it’s from trucks, aviation and the petrochemical industry and we don’t have major alternatives to oil products there. I don’t buy the argument that electric cars alone will cause a peak in oil demand at least in short and medium term.”

Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency

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World’s top five major oil companies face a crossroad

By on 31 Oct 2016 in quotes with 0 Comments

“The world’s five major oil companies are “faced with the choice of managing a gentle decline by downsizing or risking a rapid collapse by trying to carry on business as usual.”

By Chatham House, a London-based think-tank, in a report from May titled “The Death of the Old Business Model.”

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Saudi Energy Minister and ExxonMobil CEO on global oil supply trends

By on 24 Oct 2016 in quotes with 0 Comments

“On the supply side, non-OPEC supply growth has reversed into declines due to major cuts in upstream investments and the steepening of decline rates. Without investment, that trend is likely to accelerate with the passage of time to the point that many analysts are now sending warning bells over future supply shortfalls and I am in that camp.”

Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, at the Oil & Money Conference in London

“I don’t quite share the same view that others have that we are somehow on the edge of a precipice. I think because we have confirmed the viability of very large resource base in North America … that serves as enormous spare capacity in the system. It doesn’t take mega-project dollars, and it can be brought online much more quickly than a 3-4 year project. Never bet against the creativity and tenacity of our industry.”

Rex Tillerson, CEO ExxonMobil, at the Oil & Money conference

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Bernstein Research on the future of US shale

By on 17 Oct 2016 in quotes with 0 Comments

“We believe that the Barnett shale offers compelling evidence that technology improvements ultimately cannot overcome geology. We believe the implication is that shale is a scarcer resource than generally considered and thus are more constructive longer-term as the world must seek a more marginal barrel to match future demand growth. That is bullish for longer-term oil price.”

“Increasing lateral length hurts all horizontal well performance as frictional losses increase and in the Barnett, optimal well length was determined by balancing reduction of fixed costs with reduced incremental production. Even correcting for lateral length, Barnett wells got worse with time. The E&P narrative is that a revolution in technology of improved completions (more sand, water, clusters, geo-steering, landing, etc.) is pushing down the cost curve. Yet we fail to see it in the most complete data record we have.”

Bernstein Research

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The Oil Industry in Alaska

By on 10 Oct 2016 in quotes with 0 Comments

“This discovery [Smith Bay; see Briefs below] could be really exciting for the state of Alaska. It has the size and scale to play a meaningful role in sustaining the Alaskan oil business over the next three or four decades.”

Caelus CEO Jim Musselman.

“With an oil pipeline that is three-quarters empty, this is good news for the state of Alaska.”

Alaska Governor Bill Walker

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Statement by the Center for Climate and Security on the impact of climate change on US national security

By on 19 Sep 2016 in quotes with 0 Comments

““There are few easy answers, but one thing is clear: the current trajectory of climatic change presents a strategically-significant risk to U.S. national security, and inaction is not a viable option.”

Statement by the Center for Climate and Security, a Washington-based think tank, signed by more than a dozen former senior military and national security officials

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Analyst from Barclays talks about the 2017 industry outlook

By on 12 Sep 2016 in quotes with 0 Comments

“2017 is the sweet spot for integrated companies. It took two to three years to adjust to the drop in oil prices, and a lot of the efficiencies introduced in recent years will roll into 2017 when projects kick in and free cash flow will improve.”

Lydia Rainforth, analyst with Barclays

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The state of new oil & gas exploration

By on 5 Sep 2016 in quotes with 0 Comments

New discoveries from conventional drilling are “at rock bottom. There will definitely be a strong impact on oil and gas supply, and especially oil.”

Nils-Henrik Bjurstroem, manager with Oslo-based consultants Rystad Energy

“…seriously, there is no exploration going on today.”

Per Wullf, CEO of offshore drilling company Seadrill Ltd.

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