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The Trump administration and its climate change policy

“The amazing thing [the Trump administration] is saying is human activities are going to lead to a rise in [atmospheric carbon] that is disastrous for the environment and society [a 7-degree Fahrenheit increase from pre-industrial levels]. And then they are saying they are not going to do anything about it.”

Michael MacCracken, senior scientist at US Global Change Research Program (1993 – 2002)

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LNG industry’s renewed interest in investment

“The sanctioning of LNG Canada would mark a potential turning point in the LNG market, signaling the industry’s appetite to invest has returned. Even new large-scale greenfield projects are back on the agenda, after a dearth of project financial investment decisions over the last few years.”

Saul Kavonic, Credit Suisse Group AG’s director of Asia energy research

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The state of global oil production

”Assuming that the balancing act between declining and growing [oil producing] countries continues (from Mexico through to Canada) the whole system will peak when the US shale oil peaks (in the Permian) as a result of geology or other factors and/or lack of finance in the next credit crunch, and when Iraq peaks due to social unrest or other military confrontation in the oil-producing Basra region. There are added risks from continuing disruptions in Nigeria and Libya, steeper declines in Venezuela and the impact of sanctions on Iran.”

Matt Mushalik, Australian engineer and oil industry analyst

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Trump administration’s position on the reduced need for conserving energy

[The Trump administration stated there is a “reduced the urgency of the US to conserve energy.”] I strongly disagree with this argument. It isn’t certain that the US will become a net exporter of petroleum and petroleum products, but in any case, that’s not a reason to forego conservation. There are economic reasons, national security reasons, and environmental reasons for conserving oil.”

Robert Rapier, energy industry commentator

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The significance of the price of oil

“[T]he fortunes of energy companies are highly dependent on a single, highly-salient, well-understood, widely-available, plausibly exogenous factor – the price of oil….This is a market where firm value hinges to a large degree on observable luck, so the fact that we observe little filtering of luck from [the size of] executive pay is particularly striking.”

Lucas W. Davis and Catherine Hausman, the Energy Institute in Haas

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The role of renewable energy resources in California’s electricity generation

“The [California] legislature finds and declares that the Public Utilities Commission, State Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission, and State Air Resources Board should plan for 100 percent of total retail sales of electricity in California to come from eligible renewable energy resources and zero-carbon resources by December 31, 2045.”

Senate Bill 100 reads

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Mexico’s oil production

[In Mexico] “Production peaked in 2004/2005 at just over 3.5 million b/d, so the overall decline is approaching 50%…Only three years since 1999 have had reserve replacement ratios greater than 100%. Many years’ numbers have actually been negative, some of them significantly so, and the estimated ultimate recovery has been revised slightly downwards overall.”

George Kaplan, oil industry analyst

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Potential ban on drilling in many parts of Colorado

“A ballot measure requiring greater setbacks could have a dramatic effect on drilling in Colorado. In Weld County, Colorado, where much of the drilling in Colorado’s DJ Basin takes place, the greater setback distances would put roughly 78 percent of the surface land off limits to drilling. ‘That is effectively a ban on the industry,” Dan Haley, president of the Colorado Oil & Gas Association, told Bloomberg in a July interview. “You’d basically have no new wells drilled in Colorado.’”

Nick Cunningham, Oilprice.com

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Head of commodities research at Standard Chartered on US oil production

“Weekly data had shown a strong 324,000 b/d output rise [in US oil production] from March to May. The revised data shows that this rise was a mirage: output actually fell 19,000 b/d over the period. It is time to deal with the statistical gorilla on the oil trading floor. We think US crude oil production has not reached the 11 million b/d shown in recent weeks in the Energy Information Administration weekly data, and that it is significantly below 11mb/d, with growth slowing.”

Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Standard Chartered

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Oil industry analyst’s perspective on the lack of capacity of low-sulfur fuel production

“The economic collapse I predict will occur because the world’s petroleum industry lacks the capacity needed to supply additional low-sulfur fuel to the shipping industry [in 2020] while meeting the requirements of existing customers such as farmers, truckers, railroads, and heavy equipment operators.”

Phillip Verleger, oil industry economist, and analyst

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US District Judge in dismissing a lawsuit by New York City against major oil companies

“Climate change is a fact of life, as is not contested by Defendants. But the serious problems caused thereby are not for the judiciary to ameliorate. Global warming and solutions thereto must be addressed by the two other branches of government.”

US District Judge John Keenan in Manhattan, in dismissing a lawsuit by New York City against major oil companies

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CEO of Royal Dutch Shell on climate related class action lawsuits against Big Oil

[About climate-related class action lawsuits against Big Oil:] “It’s sort of bizarre that the users of our [petroleum] products say: ‘Well actually we didn’t want your product. So why did you force it on us?’ I don’t think also that in the end it will solve anything other than maybe redistributing wealth to a certain class of the economy.”

Ben van Beurden, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell [Environmentalists counter that this resembles the reaction of Big Tobacco to class action lawsuits decades ago.]

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Energy economist, from Forbes magazine article—“Whatever Happened to Peak Oil?”

“So, the peak oil theorists got lucky in that the industry experienced a large number of supply disruptions that raised prices, which seemed to confirm their arguments—just as the Iranian Oil Crisis of 1979 incorrectly convinced many that ever-higher crude prices were unavoidable and resource optimists naive. But by understanding that supply disruptions in Iraq, Libya, Venezuela and so on were responsible for higher prices, it is possible to recognize that political trends in oil exporting countries will determine prices, not resource scarcity. Recognizing the former means coping with cyclical prices, believing in the latter means getting blindsided by every major price decline.”

Michael Lynch, energy economist, from Forbes magazine article—“Whatever Happened to Peak Oil?”

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Consequences of rising demand for personal vehicles in developing countries

“To the extent that developing countries aspire to reach motorization levels comparable to those in developed countries, the number of vehicles will likely continue to climb rapidly. We in the developed countries cannot successfully argue that the mobility afforded to us by personal vehicles is something to be curtailed in the developing countries for the benefit of us all. As a consequence, the required raw materials and energy will challenge our resources, and the resulting vehicle emissions will strain our ecological systems.”

Michael Sivak, former director of Sustainable Worldwide Transportation at the University of Michigan (6/12)

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Pope Francis on Climate Change

“Climate change is a global problem with grave implications: environmental, social, economic, political and for the distribution of goods.”

Pope Francis, who will meet with Big Oil execs the week of June 11, from a 2015 statement

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Energy industry commentator on an impending oil supply crunch

“Since the beginning of the shale revolution a decade ago, the world has discovered 110 billion barrels of oil. Meanwhile, consumption has totaled 360 billion barrels. This 250 billion barrel deficit between discoveries and consumption seems sure to grow in the years ahead, given recent oil discovery trends.
“It is understandable why people would be complacent about this scenario. After all, didn’t the world face similar risks a decade ago, only to have shale oil save the day? But it isn’t clear that there is another ‘shale oil miracle’ that is ready to save the day. There are indeed more high-cost oil resources out there that can be developed, but these projects take a long time to complete. That’s why we can look out two to three years and see an impending supply crunch. The longer investments in the industry remain depressed, the more unavoidable this scenario becomes.”

Robert Rapier, a chemical engineer and industry commentator (3/23/18, in Forbes magazine)

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CEO of small-cap Centennial Resource Development on Bakken & Eagle Ford Shale Plays

“”My estimate is that about 70% of the good quality drilling locations [in the Bakken and Eagle Ford shale plays] have already been drilled. So you’re left with Tier 2, and Tier 3 quality geologic locations, and there’s a really steep drop-off in the amount of oil you get per well with those locations.” Even though technology and well completion techniques have improved per-well yields, “that doesn’t offset bad rock. I expect by the August [earnings conference] calls, to see some independents temper their 2018 growth forecasts. They’ll couch it in terms of unavailability of service equipment, difficulty getting crews or logistical issues, but that will be code for ‘I’m having disappointing well results because I’m having to drill Tier 2 and 3 geologic locations’.”

Mark Papa, former CEO of shale producer EOG Resources and currently CEO of small-cap Centennial Resource Development.

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Joint Statement from two UK secretaries on UK natural gas

“Despite the welcome improvements in efficiency and innovation from companies operating in the North Sea, the ongoing decline in our offshore gas production has meant that the UK has gone from being a net exporter of gas in 2003 to importing over half (53%) of gas supplies in 2017 and estimates suggest we could be importing 72% of our gas by 2030.”

Greg Clark, Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, and James Brokenshire, the Secretary of State for Housing, Communities, and Local Government, in a joint statement

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Kinder Morgan Canada Ltd wants to almost triple the capacity of its Trans Mountain pipeline

In Canada, Kinder Morgan Canada Ltd wants to almost triple the capacity of its Trans Mountain pipeline from Alberta to the Pacific province of British Columbia, which strongly opposes the idea on environmental grounds. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said, “I have asked the finance minister to engage in discussions, financial discussions, with Kinder Morgan and that’s exactly what is going on. We will ensure that this pipeline gets built in a way that upholds and protects the interests of Canadians. “This pipeline will get built.” (4/20)

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