Helping America Navigate a New Energy Reality

quotes

Letter from 22 Democratic US senators to Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke regarding US offshore drilling

By on 15 Jan 2018 in quotes with 0 Comments

“Just like Florida, our states are unique with vibrant coastal economies. Providing all of our states with the same exemption from dangerous offshore oil and gas drilling would ensure that vital industries from tourism to recreation to fishing are not needlessly placed in harm’s way.”

Letter from 22 Democratic US senators to Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, after Florida was granted an exemption from the opening of 90% of US federal offshore areas for drilling

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BMI research report on Indonesian LNG sector

By on 8 Jan 2018 in quotes with 0 Comments

“[Indonesia:] Once the world’s largest exporter of LNG, the country is anticipated to start importing LNG for the first time from 2021, as declining production fails to keep pace with demand.”

BMI research report

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CEO of oil trading firm Vitol on the outlook of US oil production

By on 1 Jan 2018 in quotes with 0 Comments

“I think the question, a little bit in the longer term is – is this [2018] the last big rise in US production?… If you look at the economics on most of the big Permian players, not many of them make a lot of money.”

Ian Taylor, CEO at oil trading firm Vitol

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Senior Analyst at Rystad Energy on Global Oil Discoveries

By on 26 Dec 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“We haven’t seen anything like this since the 1940s. The discovered volumes [of oil worldwide] averaged at ~550 million barrels of oil equivalent per month. The most worrisome is the fact that the reserve replacement ratio in the current year reached only 11% (for oil and gas combined) – compared to over 50% in 2012 and 100% in 2006. [Additionally] Low resources per discovered field can influence its commerciality. Under our current base case price scenario, we estimate that over 1 billion boe discovered during 2017 might never be developed.”

Sonia Mladá Passos, Senior Analyst at Rystad Energy

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Forbes on the Benefits of Biofuels made from Corn

By on 18 Dec 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“OK, can we please stop pretending biofuel made from corn is helping the planet and the environment? The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released two of its Working Group reports at the end of last month, and their short discussion of biofuels has ignited a fierce debate as to whether they’re of any environmental benefit at all.” 

James Conca, Forbes

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MIT report on EIA’s assumptions and models regarding US oil production as reported by Bloomberg

By on 4 Dec 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“The EIA’s [assumes] that better technology has been behind nearly all the recent output gains, and will continue to boost production for the foreseeable future. That’s not quite right. Instead, the MIT research suggests increases have been largely due to something more mundane: low energy prices, which led drillers to focus on sweet spots where oil and gas are easiest to extract. ‘The EIA is assuming that productivity of individual wells will continue to rise as a result of improvements in technology,’ said Justin B. Montgomery, a researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and one of the study’s authors. ‘This compounds year after year, like interest, so the further out in the future the wells are drilled, the more that they are being overestimated.’ The problem with the EIA’s numbers, the researchers say, is that they give drillers too much credit for coming up with ways to improve fracking.”

From a Bloomberg News story (12/2)

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A communique from 15,000 scientists from 184 countries assessing the world’s latest responses to various environmental threats

By on 20 Nov 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“Humanity has failed to make sufficient progress in generally solving foreseen environmental challenges, and alarmingly, most of them are getting far worse. Soon it will be too late to shift course away from our failing trajectory.”

A communique from 15,000 scientists from 184 countries assessing the world’s latest responses to various environmental threats (11/14)

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The Future of Self driving Vehicles

By on 13 Nov 2017 in quotes with 1 Comment

“There isn’t a viable alternative to fossil fuels on the horizon. We’re not buying into the long-term demand destruction for oil.”

 Alasdair McKinnon, portfolio manager at Scottish Investment Trust

“Vehicles of the future will no longer be driven by humans because in 15 to 20 years — at the latest — human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways. The tipping point will come when 20 to 30 percent of vehicles are fully autonomous. Countries will look at the accident statistics and figure out that human drivers are causing 99.9 percent of the accidents.”

Bob Lutz, former executive with major auto company

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Portfolio Manager for Century Management on the Future of US Shale Oil

By on 6 Nov 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“There’s a complacency that shale is going to continue to produce at the kind of volumes that we had in the past…If the world keeps believing we’ve got surplus oil as far as the eye can see—which I don’t believe—then the reality is going to smack everybody in the face. And it will be hard to catch up.”

Jim Brilliant, portfolio manager for Century Management

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Batteries & Offshore Oil Drilling in Gulf of Mexico

By on 30 Oct 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“There’s going to be a lot of excitement around batteries in the next five years. And I would say that the country will get blanketed with [battery] projects.”

Spencer Hanes, Duke Energy business development managing director

“In today’s low-price energy environment, providing the offshore industry access to the maximum amount of opportunities possible is part of our strategy to spur local and regional economic dynamism and job creation and a pillar of President Trump’s plan to make the United States energy dominant.”

Ryan Zinke, US Secretary of the Interior, after announcing a record 77 million acres for lease in the Gulf of Mexico

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Analyst at FBR Capital Markets on the Future of Deepwater Oil

By on 23 Oct 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“Deepwater is going to be playing a much-reduced role on the global oil-supply stage relative to what the industry expected as recently as three years ago.”

Thomas Curran, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets in New York.

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Chief Executive at Vitol on the Prospects of US Oil Production

By on 16 Oct 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“I think the question, a little bit in the longer term is – is this the last big rise in US production?… If you look at the economics on most of the big Permian players, not many of them make a lot of money.”

Ian Taylor, chief executive at Vitol, which trades more than 7 percent of global oil.

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Head of the IEA’s renewable energy division on China’s Solar PV industry

By on 9 Oct 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“The solar PV story is a Chinese story. China has been for a long time the leader in manufacturing. What’s new is the share in the market. This year, it was equivalent to the total installed capacity of PV in Germany.”

Paolo Frankl, head of the IEA’s renewable energy division

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Director of unconventional resources for IHS on the profitability of the Permian Basin

By on 2 Oct 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“The Permian Basin is America’s super basin in terms of its oil and gas production history, and for operators, it presents a significant variety of stacked targets that are profitable at today’s oil prices.”

Prithiraj Chungkham, director of unconventional resources for IHS

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White House National Security Adviser on North Korea

By on 25 Sep 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

After the most recent missile launch and after the UN imposed fuel supply sanctions on North Korea: “We’ve been kicking the can down the road, and we’re out of road.”

H.R. McMaster, White House national security adviser

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The Global LNG Price Dynamics

By on 18 Sep 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

[In commenting on India forcing ExxonMobil to renegotiate LNG prices] “This trend is overall a negative for sellers, as they are forced to provide more flexibility to buyers’ needs to maintain their markets. The risk of price renegotiations will become more acute over the next couple years as spot LNG prices remain depressed, even if oil-linked prices rise. The elephant in the room will be how negotiations play out with traditional markets in Japan and Korea, and especially the Chinese national oil companies.”

Saul Kavonic, analyst with Wood Mackenzie

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The US Delusion with respect to Energy Abundance

By on 11 Sep 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“…The US is deluding itself when it comes to energy abundance (generally) and oil (specifically). Yet that’s not what we hear from the cheerleaders in the industry or in our media. From them, we hear a silver-tongued narrative of coming riches — a narrative that contains some truth, some myth, and a lot of fantasy. It’s those last two parts — the myths and fantasies — that are going to seriously hurt many investors, as well cause a lot of extremely poor policy and investment decisions.”

Chris Martenson, commentator at www.peakprosperity.com, former investments manager

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NAFTA and Energy Trade Across North American Borders

By on 4 Sep 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“Any changes that disrupt energy trade across our North American borders, reduce investment protection or revert to high tariffs and trade barriers that preceded NAFTA could put at risk tens of millions of jobs.”

From top oil and gas trade groups from the US, Canada. and Mexico, in a joint position paper released last month prior to new NAFTA-related talks.

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Drilling off the Atlantic Coast

By on 28 Aug 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“It will likely be years before the oil and gas industry can start drilling off the Atlantic coast, even in the best-case scenario. But even then, it is unclear if there will be any interest. The Atlantic has not been explored very much, and as a result, the exact nature of the oil and gas reserves in place is unknown. That likely means that development costs will be high. If oil prices fail to rise much from current levels, it is not at all clear that the Atlantic will be very competitive.”

Nick Cunningham, Oilprice.com

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The Correlation between Interest Rates and Oil Prices

By on 21 Aug 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“When interest rates fall, this tends to allow oil prices to rise, and thus allows increased production. This postpones the Peak Oil crisis, but makes the ultimate crisis worse…Falling interest rates between 1981 and 2014 are one of the things that allowed Peak Oil to be postponed for many years…. Peak Economy is likely not very far away. We do not need to encourage it, by raising interest rates and selling securities held by the Federal Reserve. We badly need more people to understand the connection between interest rates and oil prices, and how important it is that interest rates not rise.”

Gail Tverberg, actuary and commentator (8/16)

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The State of Nuclear Power Plants

By on 14 Aug 2017 in quotes with 1 Comment

[After two nuclear plants in South Carolina were cancelled:] “We continue to believe that the problem with new nuclear (small modular units excepted) power plants is not that they generate electricity with nuclear fission. The difficulty is economic. The nuclear units are expensive, base load generating units in a world where production of electricity is becoming less expensive and increasingly decentralized. Base load power plants (and especially nuclear ones) are, in general, must-run, inflexible price takers. Going forward there will be less need for those facilities regardless of how they are fueled. Furthermore, the builder of a nuclear plant must bet an enormous sum on the need for electricity a decade hence, when the plant is completed. Given the uncertainty in power demand and prices, that is a gamble uncompensated in the regulatory process.

By Leonard Hyman and William Tilles for Oilprice.com

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CEO of Royal Dutch Shell on the future of electric vehicles in developed and developing nations

By on 31 Jul 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“Even if the UK, France and the Western world, in general, will all go to 100 percent electric vehicles, that would be great, but that wouldn’t be enough…We still have less advanced economic economies that cannot do that switch.”

Ben van Beurden, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell (7/28)

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Senior Vice President of Maritime Services at Maersk Line Ltd. on Price Break Point for Arctic Oil

By on 24 Jul 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“The fact is, oil at $50 a barrel makes Arctic oil uncompetitive. In terms of what’s going to happen down the road, I saw a World Bank report placed the oil in nominal dollars at $80 a barrel in 2030. That’s still way below break the price for Arctic oil.”

Stephen M. Carmel, senior vice president of Maritime Services at Maersk Line Ltd. (7/21)

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Divergent views on Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles

By on 17 Jul 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“What oil companies and car companies are saying [about future sales of plug-in vehicles] is diverging.  This is a trillion-dollar question, and someone is going to be wrong.”

Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport analysis for Bloomberg New Energy Finance

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US Energy Secretary Rick Perry on the supply and demand dynamics of coal

By on 10 Jul 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“Here’s a little economics lesson, supply and demand: You put the supply [more coal] out there and the demand will follow that.”

US Energy Secretary Rick Perry, who was criticised by economists who point out that, typically, supply follows demand

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