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Is Non-OPEC Beginning to Decline?

By on 27 Jan 2016 in analysis, notable posts

USA

(Peak Oil Barrel) The EIA’s Monthly Energy Review just came out. They have the U.S. production numbers through December along with World, OPEC C+C, Non-OPEC and selected Non-OPEC nations through October. All EIA data is in thousand barrels per day.

Notice: When I use the term “peaked” below, I am referring to the most recent peak, not the all time peak and not necessarily the final peak. United States C+C production peaked in April at 9,694,000 bpd and has dropped half a million barrels per day by December to 9,191,000 bpd.

USA 2 Year

Here is a 2 year chart of US production that gives an amplified look at what is happening. November and December production is now below November 2014 production. Non-OPEC C+C peaked in December at 47,207,000 bpd and dropped 763,000 bpd to 46,444,000 bpd by October.

The above chart, I believe, clearly shows that Non-OPEC production is in a downward trend. There is little doubt that this trend will continue for the next year or so. The question is how far will it drop before an increase in prices brings back enough upstream investment to turn production back around? And how long will that take? World C+C production peaked in July at 80,531,000 and by October had dropped 461,000 bpd to 80,070 bpd. Russia peaked in January at 10,246,000 bpd and in Octber was down 106,000 bpd to 10,140,000 bpd. Russia appears to be on a plateau, likely before a slow decline that begins in 2016. China peaked in June at 4,408,000 bpd and production in October stood at 4,259,000 bpd.

United Kingdom

The United Kingdom has been on a plateau of about 800,000 bpd for about three and one half years but in October had production up to 912,000 bpd. Norway, like the UK, managed to halt its decline about three and one half years ago and has been on a plateau of around 1,600,000 bpd since then. They had a gain of 104,000 bpd in October to 1,685,000 bpd. Egypt is in steady decline. In October their C+C production stood at 509,000 bpd.

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