Helping America Navigate a New Energy Reality

Oil Price And Its Effect On Production

By on 25 Feb 2016 in analysis, notable posts

JODI World C+C

( The JODI Oil World Database came out a few days ago. The data is through December 2015. The JODI C+C production numbers differs somewhat from the EIA numbers. The JODI OPEC numbers are crude. Also there are a few very small producers that do not report to JODI so their numbers will be slightly less than the EIA. But otherwise they are pretty accurate.

Also, JODI, for some reason, does not count all of Canada’s oil sands production. So for Canada I use Canada’s National Energy Board numbers instead.

The JODI C+C numbers, for Non-OPEC, will average about 2.4 million barrels per day less than the EIA. This is largely due to some countries not reporting to JODI. But these countries only have small changes in their overall production so would have little effect on any of my charts or calculations. According to JODI, world crude oil production peaked, so far, in July and has declined by 339,000 barrels per day. The recent price collapse has had a greater effect on Non-OPEC production than OPEC production. Non-OPEC production peaked, so far, in December 2014 and in December 2015 stood at 650,000 bpd below that peak. No discussion of Non-OPEC production would be complete without Russia, Non-OPEC’s largest producer. I would never claim, just by looking at the chart, that Russia is peaking, or has peaked. But there have been reports coming out of Russia for over two years now that Russia is peaking. Some of those reports like this one Global and Russian Energy Outlook to 2040 have been reported on this blog. I think the charts lend strong credence to those reports.

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