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Oil! Massive shale discovery in Texas

By on 8 Sep 2016 in news, notable posts with 0 Comments
Oil! Massive shale discovery in Texas

(CNN) Apache ( APA ) revealed the huge find this week after more than two years of stealthily buying up land, extensive geological research and rigorous testing.

The Houston company estimates the discovery, dubbed “Alpine High,” could be worth at least $8 billion.

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OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report August 2016

By on 22 Aug 2016 in news, notable posts with 0 Comments
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report August 2016

(peakoilbarrel.com) When oil fell below $30 a barrel earlier this year, banks turned away from lending to energy companies. The price of crude has bounced back more than 80% from its February low, but banks are still wary.

Big banks cut loans to the energy sector by about 3% in the second quarter over all and some individual lenders pulled back much more, according to an analysis of July and August securities filings by Barclays analysts.

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Oil prices slip as short-covering rally fizzles

By on 8 Aug 2016 in news, notable posts with 0 Comments
Oil prices slip as short-covering rally fizzles

(Reuters) A worker walks at Nahr Bin Umar oil field, north of Basra, Iraq December 21, 2015. Oil prices dipped on Friday, ending a two-day rally, as a glut of crude and refined products weighed on markets and investors eyed a possible stutter in China’s imports.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 fetched $41.74 per barrel at 0930 GMT (0530 ET), down 19 cents from their last close, after trading as low as $41.44 earlier in the day. They were on track roughly to break even on the week.

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Analysis

Oil glut seen extending into 2017 on weaker demand

By on 13 Sep 2016 in analysis, notable posts with 0 Comments
Oil glut seen extending into 2017 on weaker demand

(Toronto Star) The much-anticipated rebalancing of oil markets appears to be a bit further away after the International Energy Agency revised its forecast, trimming its expectations for the growth in oil demand and citing near-record production by OPEC’s Middle East exporters.

The IEA said Tuesday that global oil demand is rising at a slower pace than expected, lowering its forecast by 100,000 barrels a day to an increase of 1.3 million barrels a day in 2016 and 1.2 million barrels a day in 2017.

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Are Shale-Oil Companies Starting to Weather the Crude Slide?

By on 5 Aug 2016 in analysis, notable posts with 0 Comments
Are Shale-Oil Companies Starting to Weather the Crude Slide?

(Wall Street Journal) A truck used to carry sand for fracking is washed in a truck stop on February 4, 2015 in Odessa, Texas. … Debt from U.S. shale companies has held its ground even as oil prices have beat a fast retreat, a sign the firms may have adapted to an era of cheaper crude and could remain key suppliers to the market.

A build-up in stockpiles of oil has renewed downward pressure on prices: U.S. crude is now at roughly $42 the barrel, 14% below where it was at the beginning of June, when it appeared to be rallying.

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The One Chart That Shows Why Oil Prices Have To Keep Rising

By on 28 Jun 2016 in analysis, notable posts with 0 Comments
The One Chart That Shows Why Oil Prices Have To Keep Rising

(oilprice.com) There has been a lot of pessimism among oil investors in recent months, and indeed the bear market over the last couple of years in black gold has destroyed many nest eggs. With that said, oil investors who have run for the hills could find themselves regretting that decision in the months and years to come.

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Viewpoints

What Hubbert Got Really Wrong About Oil

By on 8 Sep 2016 in notable posts, viewpoints with 0 Comments
What Hubbert Got Really Wrong About Oil

(Forbes) If you happen to be someone who is interested in the topic of “peak oil”, you know the name M. King Hubbert.

The history of the scientific study of peak oil dates to the 1950s, when Hubbert, a Shell geophysicist, reported on studies he had undertaken regarding the production rates of oil and gas fields.

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Is the Oil Industry Dying?

By on 10 Aug 2016 in notable posts, viewpoints with 1 Comment
Is the Oil Industry Dying?

(psmag.com) Talking about “peak oil” can feel very last decade. In fact, the question is still current. Petroleum markets are so glutted and prices are so low that most industry commenters think any worry about future oil supplies is pointless. The glut and price dip, however, are hardly indications of a healthy industry; instead, they are symptoms of an increasing inability to match production cost, supply, and demand in a way that’s profitable for producers but affordable for society. Is this what peak oil looks like?

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The Death of OPEC

By on 26 Jul 2016 in notable posts, viewpoints with 0 Comments
The Death of OPEC

(Project Syndicate) The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is dead. Saudi Arabia killed it. Now, OPEC is just a toothless zombie, attracting attention, but without having any impact on the living.

Few have noticed OPEC’s demise for a simple reason: it never really had the impact that it was widely perceived to have. It was never actually a cartel, possessing monopolistic market power. Anyone who thought otherwise was mistakenly attributing to it Saudi Arabia’s market power.

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Other Recent Posts

Letter from 22 Democratic US senators to Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke regarding US offshore drilling

By on 15 Jan 2018 in quotes with 0 Comments

“Just like Florida, our states are unique with vibrant coastal economies. Providing all of our states with the same exemption from dangerous offshore oil and gas drilling would ensure that vital industries from tourism to recreation to fishing are not needlessly placed in harm’s way.”

Letter from 22 Democratic US senators to Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, after Florida was granted an exemption from the opening of 90% of US federal offshore areas for drilling

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Peak Oil Review – 15 Jan 2018

By on 15 Jan 2018 in Peak Oil Review with 0 Comments
Peak Oil Review – 15 Jan 2018

New York oil futures closed up 4.7 percent last week despite a ten-rig increase in the number of active US oil rigs.  London and New York futures closed with biggest weekly gains since October. On Thursday Brent crude briefly traded above $70 a barrel for the first time since 2014, before closing out the week at $69.78. New York futures closed the week at $64.30, some $5.50 below London. As has been the case for several weeks, shrinking crude inventories, high rates of OPEC/Russian compliance with the production freeze and what is seen as strong demand continued to drive prices higher last week.

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BMI research report on Indonesian LNG sector

By on 8 Jan 2018 in quotes with 0 Comments

“[Indonesia:] Once the world’s largest exporter of LNG, the country is anticipated to start importing LNG for the first time from 2021, as declining production fails to keep pace with demand.”

BMI research report

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Peak Oil Review – 8 Jan 2018

By on 8 Jan 2018 in Peak Oil Review with 0 Comments
Peak Oil Review – 8 Jan 2018

The first week of the new year saw much activity related to the energy markets. Oil prices continued to climb with NY futures closing at $62.01 on Thursday, the highest close since December 2014. The continuing fall in world crude stocks — US stockpiles were down by 7.4 million barrels last week—and a healthy global economy continues to push prices higher.  London futures are now at $67.66 a barrel and are closing in on $70.

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CEO of oil trading firm Vitol on the outlook of US oil production

By on 1 Jan 2018 in quotes with 0 Comments

“I think the question, a little bit in the longer term is – is this [2018] the last big rise in US production?… If you look at the economics on most of the big Permian players, not many of them make a lot of money.”

Ian Taylor, CEO at oil trading firm Vitol

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Peak Oil Review – 1 Jan 2018

By on 1 Jan 2018 in Peak Oil Review with 0 Comments
Peak Oil Review – 1 Jan 2018

US futures closed out 2017 above $60 a barrel for the first time since mid-2015. In the first half of the year, the OPEC/Russian production cut seemed to have little effect, but as the year wore on global crude inventories dropped.  By the third quarter, higher demand and lower inventories led to a price rally which left New York futures 12 percent higher for the year and London 17 percent higher. Prices are up by about 30 percent since OPEC and the Russians agreed to cut production in late 2016. For the record, US futures closed out the year at $60.42 and London at $66.62. Problems with UK, Libyan, and Nigerian production have pushed the spread between London and New York futures to more than $6 a barrel in recent weeks.

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Senior Analyst at Rystad Energy on Global Oil Discoveries

By on 26 Dec 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“We haven’t seen anything like this since the 1940s. The discovered volumes [of oil worldwide] averaged at ~550 million barrels of oil equivalent per month. The most worrisome is the fact that the reserve replacement ratio in the current year reached only 11% (for oil and gas combined) – compared to over 50% in 2012 and 100% in 2006. [Additionally] Low resources per discovered field can influence its commerciality. Under our current base case price scenario, we estimate that over 1 billion boe discovered during 2017 might never be developed.”

Sonia Mladá Passos, Senior Analyst at Rystad Energy

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Peak Oil Review – 26 Dec 2017

By on 26 Dec 2017 in Peak Oil Review with 0 Comments
Peak Oil Review – 26 Dec 2017

Last week started with a combination of the North Sea pipeline outage and a strike by Nigerian oil workers pushing prices up. In the background is the steady decline in world oil stocks that has convinced many that the oil glut will soon be over, and the steady increase in US shale oil production which has a few predicting that another price plunge is coming soon. The Nigerian oil strike was quickly settled, and by week’s end it seems that the North Sea pipeline outage will be at least partially repaired by early January.  Prices moved up slowly after closing Monday at $58.35 in New York and $65.04 in London.

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Forbes on the Benefits of Biofuels made from Corn

By on 18 Dec 2017 in quotes with 0 Comments

“OK, can we please stop pretending biofuel made from corn is helping the planet and the environment? The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released two of its Working Group reports at the end of last month, and their short discussion of biofuels has ignited a fierce debate as to whether they’re of any environmental benefit at all.” 

James Conca, Forbes

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Peak Oil Review – 18 Dec 2017

By on 18 Dec 2017 in Peak Oil Review with 0 Comments
Peak Oil Review – 18 Dec 2017

Oil prices currently seem on course to finish out 2017 with a second annual gain after the decision by OPEC to extend its production freeze through 2018. Last week Brent briefly climbed above $65 a barrel for the first time since 2015 due to the closure of the pipeline that brings some 455,000 b/d ashore from the North Sea fields. Moreover, several major financial institutions have raised their oil price forecast for the coming year.  While the year ahead looks bullish to some, there is major disagreement between OPEC and the International Energy Agency over where oil prices are going in the coming year. OPEC, bullish as usual, says that production curbs by the cartel and its allies will eliminate the oil glut that has kept oil prices low for the last three years. The IEA, however, does not expect the oil glut, which contracted by about two-thirds in 2017, will continue to shrink due to a rapid increase in US shale oil production. There are pros and cons on both sides of this disagreement so that it is difficult to see just how the situation nets out.

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