Helping America Navigate a New Energy Reality

What Happened to Oil Prices in 2015?

By on 13 Jan 2016 in analysis, notable posts

Oil Price Forecast

(Motley Fool) The U.S. Energy Information Administration routinely puts out a Short-Term Energy Outlook, and one component of that outlook is an oil price forecast. Last year at about this time, its STEO forecast that crude would average around $77.75 per barrel in 2015 . That said, knowing the historical volatility in oil prices, the EIA did have a range of potential prices, which are detailed in the following chart:

Oil Price Forecast While the EIA expected crude to stay right around its then-current price of about $75 per barrel for 2015, it did see the possibility for crude to range as high as $125 to as low as $50. In fact, there was 95% confidence that $50 was as low as crude would go in 2015. Unfortunately, the forecast was way off: WTI Crude Oil Spot Price data by YCharts. Crude never even came close to $75 all year, and it recently touched a low of $35 per barrel. Here’s what went wrong with the forecast.

Read full post at

Comments are closed.