”Assuming that the balancing act between declining and growing [oil producing] countries continues (from Mexico through to Canada) the whole system will peak when the US shale oil peaks (in the Permian) as a result of geology or other factors and/or lack of finance in the next credit crunch, and when Iraq peaks due to social unrest or other military confrontation in the oil-producing Basra region.  There are added risks from continuing disruptions in Nigeria and Libya, steeper declines in Venezuela and the impact of sanctions on Iran.”

Matt Mushalik, Australian engineer and oil industry analyst