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Peak Oil Review

Peak Oil Review – 31 Aug 2015

By on August 31, 2015 in Peak Oil Review with 0 Comments

It was one of the wildest weeks for the oil markets in recent years. On Monday, another plunge in the Chinese stock markets sent New York oil futures below $38 a barrel and London down to $43, a six and one half year low. The markets bounced around on Tuesday and Wednesday and then surged upwards for two days on the news that the US’s GDP was doing better than previously thought and that the Chinese situation was stabilizing. By Friday afternoon New York futures were up 12 percent for the week, the largest one-week gain since February 2009, closing at $45.22 a barrel. London’s Brent gained 10 percent during the week, closing at $50.05.

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Peak Oil Review – 24 Aug 2015

By on August 24, 2015 in Peak Oil Review with 0 Comments

The great oil price slide of 2014-15 is taking on epic proportions. US futures traded for a while below $40 a barrel on Friday while Brent closed out at $45.46. Last week the financial press struggled to find an historical comparison to what is taking place in the oil markets. Some papers finally settled on the price crash of 1986 which sent oil prices down to $10 a barrel and led to the demise of the Soviet Union as the most apt. The now familiar forces of too much oil in inventories with nobody moving to cut production; China’s exports, manufacturing, yuan, and stock markets continuing to drop with still more problems in sight; and the prospect for increased Iranian exports after the nuclear agreement is ratified; all contributed to the falling prices. Many sense a decisive shift in the oil markets overall appraisal of the situation with those expecting a price rebound at any minute throwing in the towel and acknowledging that those not expecting a substantial price increase until late 2016 or even 2017 are probably right.

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Peak Oil Review – 17 Aug 2015

By on August 17, 2015 in Peak Oil Review with 0 Comments

Oil prices have now had a 7th consecutive weekly loss with New York futures closing Friday at $42.50 and London at $49.19. Last week Beijing’s devaluation of the yuan joined the 2 million b/d oil glut and an unplanned outage at a major US refinery to send oil prices lower. Traders now are talking about prices falling into the $30s. The week’s new data included: US crude stocks falling a bit, but not as much as expected; new forecasts from the IEA and EIA which predict that the glut will continue and US production will fall until late in 2016 at which time production and oil prices will rise; the monthly report from North Dakota saying that shale oil production continued to rise in June and that its well-head prices are now down to $28 a barrel; and that the US rig count was up slightly the week before last.

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Analysis & Commentary

World Oil Demand Surges: A Data Point For Price Recovery

By on March 16, 2015 in Commentary
World Oil Demand Surges: A Data Point For Price Recovery

By Art Berman.  Reprinted from World oil demand increased by 1.1 million barrels per day in February. This is a potentially important data point that suggests a crude oil price recovery sooner than later. It is also important because it further supports the view that a production surplus and not weak demand is the main cause for the […]

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Déjà Vu With a Twist?

By on February 2, 2015 in Commentary

By Robert L. Hirsch. The recent world oil supply/price decline situation looks very much like what happened in 1985-86, when the Saudis dramatically increased oil production, causing world oil prices to crater.  That Saudi action was the result of their having acted as swing producer in OPEC, which under those circumstances caused a progressive loss […]

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An Apollo Program for Energy

By on January 29, 2015 in Commentary

A National Energy Program – A White Paper on Achieving Energy Independence and National Transformation.   By Lawrence Klaus. Revised and Updated, January 2015. In a recent post, we marked the 40th anniversary of the 1973 Oil Embargo–an event that has had profound economic and geopolitical aftershocks for the United States.  The embargo itself lasted […]

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