All Roads Lead To Peak Oil

(Seeking Alpha) I follow the JODI World Oil Database primarily because it is now four months ahead of the EIA international database. I make some adjustments however. I use the OPEC MOMR “secondary sources” for all OPEC data, where JODI also uses the MOMR but uses their “direct communication” data instead.

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The Fallacy Of Peak Oil Demand

(Forbes) I have seen the handwriting on the wall for the coal industry for more than a decade. Not only is coal the most carbon-intensive of the fossil fuels, it is also the fuel that has the greatest number of potential replacements. Renewables may ultimately scale to displace a substantial fraction of our coal consumption, but it’s natural gas and nuclear power that spell the beginning of coal’s demise.

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Oil Price Forecast

What Happened to Oil Prices in 2015?

(Motley Fool) The U.S. Energy Information Administration routinely puts out a Short-Term Energy Outlook, and one component of that outlook is an oil price forecast. Last year at about this time, its STEO forecast that crude would average around $77.75 per barrel in 2015.

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Gasoline-making unit at a PBF Energy Inc refinery in Delaware City, Delaware August 21, 2015.  REUTERS/Charles Mostoller - RTX1P4UV
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Oil crashes to $30 a barrel

(CNN) Oil plummeted below $30 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since December 2003. The latest wave of selling leaves crude oil down 19% this year alone. It represents an incredible 72% plunge from crude oil’s June 2014 peak of almost $108.

“The fundamental situation for oil markets is much worse than previously thought,” Barclays commodities analysts wrote in a client note.

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America lifts its ban on oil exports

(The Economist) For decades, the word “market” has been a misnomer for global trade in oil. Not only has the business been manipulated by an international cartel, OPEC, with varying degrees of success. Since 1975 America has also distorted it by banning the export of almost all crude oil.

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Interview with Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown prince Muhammad bin Salman in The Economist

Q: “Can you imagine selling shares in Saudi Aramco?

A: “This is something that is being reviewed, and we believe a decision will be made over the next few months. Personally, I’m enthusiastic about this step. I believe it is in the interest of the Saudi market, and it is in the interest of Aramco, and it is for the interest of more transparency, and to counter corruption, if any, that may be circling around Aramco.”

Interview with Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown prince Muhammad bin Salman in The Economist

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Peak Oil Review – 11 Jan 2016

Oil prices plunged again last week from a high above $38 a barrel on Monday to a new low of $32.10, touched by NY futures on Thursday. For the week New York futures were down $3.88 or 10.5 percent to close at $33.16. London’s Brent was down 10 percent for the week closing at $33.55, the lowest closing since June of 2004. The usual factors of too much oil and too little demand as the US and Chinese economies continue to weaken were behind the move. A number of the factors that usually move oil markets are beginning to change. For example, another large drop of 20 units in the US rig count failed to drive the market higher for more than a few minutes as traders have come to recognize that changes in the rig count do not translate into short-term supply changes. Likewise the increase in enmity between Iran and the Saudis is having very little impact on prices as the markets believe the harsh rhetoric is unlikely to lead to hostilities – at least in the short term. Even a US jobs report which showed the creation of 292,000 new jobs, 39 percent more than expected, did little to move prices higher. Usually traders see more people working as a sign that there will soon be more demand for gasoline, but not this time. Fundamentals are ruling the markets.

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Chart_OPEC-US Net Exports

Investors Beware: U.S. Tight Oil Is Not The Swing Producer of The World

(artberman.com) Daniel Yergin and other experts say that U.S. tight oil is the swing oil producer of the world.

They are wrong. It is preposterous to say that the world’s largest oil importer is also its swing producer.

There are two types of oil producers in the world: those who have the will and the means to affect market prices, and those who react to them. In other words, the swing producer and everyone else.

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