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Senior Vice President of Maritime Services at Maersk Line Ltd. on Price Break Point for Arctic Oil

“The fact is, oil at $50 a barrel makes Arctic oil uncompetitive. In terms of what’s going to happen down the road, I saw a World Bank report placed the oil in nominal dollars at $80 a barrel in 2030. That’s still way below break the price for Arctic oil.”

Stephen M. Carmel, senior vice president of Maritime Services at Maersk Line Ltd. (7/21)

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Peak Oil Review – 24 July 2017

The markets remain confused about the future of oil prices as analysts attempt to interpret alternating bullish and bearish signals. Last week prices rose on Tuesday and Wednesday while falling on Monday, Thursday, and Friday leaving US futures at $45.77 or about $1 below where they started the week.  With the US now exporting circa 1 million barrels of oil each day and imports up only about 300,000 b/d over last year, US stocks have been falling of late.  There has been some increase in US consumption, but a rapid rise in US oil product exports is clouding the picture as to whether the high levels of US refinery output are being consumed domestically or being shipped abroad.

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Divergent views on Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles

“What oil companies and car companies are saying [about future sales of plug-in vehicles] is diverging.  This is a trillion-dollar question, and someone is going to be wrong.”

Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport analysis for Bloomberg New Energy Finance

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Peak Oil Review – 17 July 2017

Oil prices climbed steadily last week, ending up Friday about $5 a barrel higher in New York at $46.54 with London the usual $2.50 or so higher. Although market concerns about oversupply have not gone away, a 7.6-million-barrel decline in US crude stocks and better demand from Europe and China was enough to keep the markets climbing higher. Rising prices were kept in check, however, by the continuing increases in oil production in the US, Canada, Libya and Nigeria. There are also concerns that adherence to the OPEC production cut is slipping and many traders are losing confidence in OPEC’s ability to balance the markets with the current level of effort.

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Peak Oil Review – 10 July 2017

Last Monday, oil prices rose for the eighth consecutive session closing in New York at $47 a barrel and setting a record for the longest gaining streak in nearly eight years. This surge came on speculator concerns that increases in US shale oil production were starting to slow. The rest of the week was mostly downhill with NY futures closing at $44.23. The slide came among reports that OPEC was not interested in further price cuts; a resumption of the increase in the US oil-rig count of seven rigs, adding to the run of 23 weeks of steady gains before the count fell by one the week before last; US crude production and exports continuing to gain; and OPEC exports increasing by 220,000 b/d in June to 32.49 million b/d.

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President Trump on US Energy Dominance and Exports

“We will be dominant.  We will export American energy all over the world, all around the globe. These energy exports will create countless jobs for our people, and provide true energy security to our friends, partners, and allies across the globe.”

U.S. President Donald Trump, in a speech [Ed. Note: possible hyperbole?]

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Peak Oil Review – 3 July 2017

After a decline of nearly $10 a barrel since mid-May, oil prices rebounded sharply last week with New York futures climbing from below $43 to close at $46 a barrel.  Although many are still worried about excess oil inventories, most traders are optimistic that the worst is over and that higher oil prices stemming from the OPEC production cut are ahead. Many see the recent surge in US shale oil production slowing due to oil prices being in the $40s.

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Peak Oil Review – 26 June 2017

Oil prices continued to slide last week with Brent falling below $45 on Thursday and WTI falling below $43. Prices have now dropped by more than 20 percent since the start of the year, and Brent crude will likely post its worst first half since 1997. As normal of late, prices fell on increasing production in the US, Canada, Nigeria and Libya with little solid indication that the OPEC/NOPEC consortium is yet willing to make further production cuts.  While the sharp production gains in Libya and Nigeria are recoveries from geopolitical production outages, some are forecasting that the surge in US shale oil production could run on into 2018 provided oil prices remain high enough to support additional growth.

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Bloomberg’s New Energy Finance lead author on the unstoppable expansion of renewable electricity

“This year’s [New Energy Outlook] report suggests that the greening of the world’s electricity system is unstoppable, thanks to rapidly falling costs for solar and wind power, and a growing role for batteries, including those in electric vehicles, in balancing supply and demand.”

Seb Henbest, Bloomberg’s New Energy Finance lead author

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Peak Oil Review – 19 June 2017

In the last month, US oil prices have fallen from close to $52 a barrel to below $45. Partly due to the large exports of US crude which have been around 1 million b/d in recent weeks, London prices have been running only about $2 a barrel higher than the US. Last week a report from the IEA predicting that the oil glut would continue into 2018 or beyond, combined with an unexpected jump in US commercial petroleum stocks, to push oil prices down by $2 a barrel to touch a low of $44.50 on Thursday before a slight recovery on Friday.

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Peak Oil Review – 12 June 2017

During the past month, there have been several important developments which could have a major impact on the course of oil prices and production in the next few years. First was the OPEC/NOPEC decision to extend the current 1.8 million b/d production cut for another 18 months despite increasing evidence that increasing US shale oil output and rebounding Libyan and Nigerian production are offsetting the production cut. Because of the timid nature of the OPEC decision, increasing stockpiles and higher oil production, the price of crude has fallen some 11-12 percent in the last three weeks leaving US futures below $46 and Brent below $48 a barrel.

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President of the League of Conservation Voters on litigation regarding Arctic and Atlantic permanent protections

“President Trump is trying to erase all the climate and environmental progress we’ve made. We aren’t about to go down without a fight, and by joining this litigation, we are signaling to Congress our resolute and growing commitment to defending the Arctic and Atlantic permanent protections and halting the expansion of risky offshore drilling.”

Gene Karpinski, President of the League of Conservation Voters

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Peak Oil Review – 8 May 2017

The price slump which began in early April continued last week with NY futures falling below $46 a barrel on Thursday, down from nearly $54 last month. Behind the move are fundamentals saying that a combination of higher US crude production and rebounding Libyan output are offsetting the 1.8 million b/d OPEC/NOPEC production cut. In the past week, several oil ministers supporting the production cut have issued reassuring statements as to how well the cut is being observed; that the cut likely to be extended until the end of the year; and that the 3rd quarter will see substantial progress in easing the oil glut. Outside analysts continue to say that deeper cuts and extending on into 2018 will be necessary to offset booming production in countries not subject to the cut.

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Peak Oil Review – 1 May 2017

Oil prices fell again last week on concerns that the OPEC production cut will not be enough to offset increasing US shale oil production. The reopening of two Libyan oilfields which could bring Libyan production back to the vicinity of 700,000 b/d added to the pressure on oil prices. At week’s close, New York futures were below $50 a barrel with London a couple of dollars higher, both down about 8 percent from their April peak of $54-$55 a barrel.

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Peak Oil Review – 24 Apr 2017

Last week, oil prices underwent their biggest weekly decline in a month as the markets lost confidence in OPEC’s ability to reduce the global oil surplus in the near future. The move was supported by reports that a glut was developing in the physical oil market in the North Sea area as lower Asia purchases, increased shipments of US crude to the EU, and more supplies coming out of storage all served to drive down prices. At week’s end, US futures were once again trading below $50 a barrel and London’s Brent below $52.

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Head of analysis at Rystad Energy on new oil discoveries

“The shortcoming of oil replacement by the drill bit has been quite drastic … Discoveries are not keeping up with production.”

Per Magnus Nysveen, head of analysis, Rystad Energy. Last year, 10 billion barrels of oil were discovered, around one third of global consumption, including well-appraisal activity, said Nysveen. He added that supply could fall short by up to 2 million barrels per day within seven to eight years.

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Peak Oil Review – 17 Apr 2017

After climbing steadily since March 27th, oil prices stabilized at the $53-55 level late last week. As usual, prices got a boost from various oil minister’s comments about how well they were doing in meeting their production cut goals and how they are considering extending the cuts until the end of the year. The monthly OPEC report shows that the cartel’s production jumped by about 1.2 million b/d after production cuts were first seriously discussed last fall, and then fell about the same amount after cuts started in January. The net result was to leave OPEC’s production about where it was through most of 2016.

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Peak Oil Review – 10 Apr 2017

After falling on Monday on the news that Libya was resuming production from its largest oilfield that was shut down the previous week, oil prices moved higher for the next three days on hopes that the OPEC production cut was having the desired effect. Some believe that oil traders have been too busy watching the well-publicized build in US crude stocks, while excess inventories in other parts of the world are shrinking away unnoticed. Futures prices, which were about $48 a barrel the US the week before last, climbed to over $51 a barrel by Thursday.

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President Trump & the founder and CEO of US’s largest coal company on the future of mining jobs in America

“My administration is putting an end to the war on coal…The miners are coming back.”

US President Donald Trump, as he signed the “energy independence” executive order

“I suggested that (Trump) temper his expectations. He can’t bring them back.”

Robert Murray, founder and CEO of Murray Energy, the biggest US coal company

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