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Peak Oil Review – 15 July 2019

Prices have climbed steadily for the last three months closing on Friday above $60 a barrel in New York and $67 in London. The combination of slowing US shale oil drilling and the Venezuela, Iran, and the OPEC+ situations continue to outweigh the bad economic news that may someday lower demand. The situation in Venezuela gets worse every day, and it seems likely that the country will see a significant drop in production and exports during March.

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Peak Oil Review – 8 July 2019

Prices have climbed steadily for the last three months closing on Friday above $60 a barrel in New York and $67 in London. The combination of slowing US shale oil drilling and the Venezuela, Iran, and the OPEC+ situations continue to outweigh the bad economic news that may someday lower demand. The situation in Venezuela gets worse every day, and it seems likely that the country will see a significant drop in production and exports during March.

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Peak Oil Review – 1 July 2019

Prices have climbed steadily for the last three months closing on Friday above $60 a barrel in New York and $67 in London. The combination of slowing US shale oil drilling and the Venezuela, Iran, and the OPEC+ situations continue to outweigh the bad economic news that may someday lower demand. The situation in Venezuela gets worse every day, and it seems likely that the country will see a significant drop in production and exports during March.

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Peak Oil Review – 24 June 2019

Prices have climbed steadily for the last three months closing on Friday above $60 a barrel in New York and $67 in London. The combination of slowing US shale oil drilling and the Venezuela, Iran, and the OPEC+ situations continue to outweigh the bad economic news that may someday lower demand. The situation in Venezuela gets worse every day, and it seems likely that the country will see a significant drop in production and exports during March.

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Peak Oil Review – 17 June 2019

Prices have climbed steadily for the last three months closing on Friday above $60 a barrel in New York and $67 in London. The combination of slowing US shale oil drilling and the Venezuela, Iran, and the OPEC+ situations continue to outweigh the bad economic news that may someday lower demand. The situation in Venezuela gets worse every day, and it seems likely that the country will see a significant drop in production and exports during March.

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Peak Oil Review – 10 June 2019

Prices have climbed steadily for the last three months closing on Friday above $60 a barrel in New York and $67 in London. The combination of slowing US shale oil drilling and the Venezuela, Iran, and the OPEC+ situations continue to outweigh the bad economic news that may someday lower demand. The situation in Venezuela gets worse every day, and it seems likely that the country will see a significant drop in production and exports during March.

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Peak Oil Review – 3 June 2019

Prices have climbed steadily for the last three months closing on Friday above $60 a barrel in New York and $67 in London. The combination of slowing US shale oil drilling and the Venezuela, Iran, and the OPEC+ situations continue to outweigh the bad economic news that may someday lower demand. The situation in Venezuela gets worse every day, and it seems likely that the country will see a significant drop in production and exports during March.

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Peak Oil Review – 28 May 2019

Prices have climbed steadily for the last three months closing on Friday above $60 a barrel in New York and $67 in London. The combination of slowing US shale oil drilling and the Venezuela, Iran, and the OPEC+ situations continue to outweigh the bad economic news that may someday lower demand. The situation in Venezuela gets worse every day, and it seems likely that the country will see a significant drop in production and exports during March.

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Peak Oil Review – 20 May 2019

Prices have climbed steadily for the last three months closing on Friday above $60 a barrel in New York and $67 in London. The combination of slowing US shale oil drilling and the Venezuela, Iran, and the OPEC+ situations continue to outweigh the bad economic news that may someday lower demand. The situation in Venezuela gets worse every day, and it seems likely that the country will see a significant drop in production and exports during March.

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Peak Oil Review – 14 May 2019

Prices have climbed steadily for the last three months closing on Friday above $60 a barrel in New York and $67 in London. The combination of slowing US shale oil drilling and the Venezuela, Iran, and the OPEC+ situations continue to outweigh the bad economic news that may someday lower demand. The situation in Venezuela gets worse every day, and it seems likely that the country will see a significant drop in production and exports during March.

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Peak Oil Review – 6 May 2019

Prices have climbed steadily for the last three months closing on Friday above $60 a barrel in New York and $67 in London. The combination of slowing US shale oil drilling and the Venezuela, Iran, and the OPEC+ situations continue to outweigh the bad economic news that may someday lower demand. The situation in Venezuela gets worse every day, and it seems likely that the country will see a significant drop in production and exports during March.

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Peak Oil Review – 29 Apr 2019

Prices have climbed steadily for the last three months closing on Friday above $60 a barrel in New York and $67 in London. The combination of slowing US shale oil drilling and the Venezuela, Iran, and the OPEC+ situations continue to outweigh the bad economic news that may someday lower demand. The situation in Venezuela gets worse every day, and it seems likely that the country will see a significant drop in production and exports during March.

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Peak Oil Review – 22 Apr 2019

Prices have climbed steadily for the last three months closing on Friday above $60 a barrel in New York and $67 in London. The combination of slowing US shale oil drilling and the Venezuela, Iran, and the OPEC+ situations continue to outweigh the bad economic news that may someday lower demand. The situation in Venezuela gets worse every day, and it seems likely that the country will see a significant drop in production and exports during March.

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Peak Oil Review – 15 Apr 2019

Prices have climbed steadily for the last three months closing on Friday above $60 a barrel in New York and $67 in London. The combination of slowing US shale oil drilling and the Venezuela, Iran, and the OPEC+ situations continue to outweigh the bad economic news that may someday lower demand. The situation in Venezuela gets worse every day, and it seems likely that the country will see a significant drop in production and exports during March.

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Peak Oil Review – 1 Apr 2019

Prices have climbed steadily for the last three months closing on Friday above $60 a barrel in New York and $67 in London. The combination of slowing US shale oil drilling and the Venezuela, Iran, and the OPEC+ situations continue to outweigh the bad economic news that may someday lower demand. The situation in Venezuela gets worse every day, and it seems likely that the country will see a significant drop in production and exports during March.

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member of EU Parliament on the influence of Big Oil on EU

“This [Exxon] is the company that denied the [climate] science, despite knowing the damage their oil exploitation was causing; which funded campaigns to block action on climate and now refuses to face up to its environmental crimes by attending today’s hearing. We cannot allow the lobbyists from such corporations free access to the corridors of the European parliament. We must remove their badges immediately.”

Molly Scott Cato, member of EU parliament

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Peak Oil Review – 25 Mar 2019

Prices climbed for the first three trading days last week on the perception that oil supplies were tightening due to the OPEC+ cuts, the US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, and a 9.6-million-barrel decline in US crude stocks. Prices in London closed on Wednesday at $68.50 — a four-month high. However, market sentiments changed on Thursday and Friday as fears of an economic slowdown hit the equity and oil markets. Signals from the Federal Reserve that there may not be any more interest rate increases this year contributed to the idea that harder economic times are ahead. A report on Friday showed factory output in the eurozone fell in March at the fastest pace in nearly six years, while US manufacturing activity slipped to its lowest level in almost two years.

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Indicator of declining US oil production

“Total open interest has fallen by twenty percent, as can be seen from the figure [below]. Swap dealer short positions have also contracted. The message is clear: producers are hedging less, and they are hedging less because they expect to produce less. The statistics point to a one to two-million-barrel decline in production from the frackers. Some but not all this loss may be made up by the increased activity of firms such as Exxon. In short, the growth in US oil output is about to be reversed.

Philip Verleger, energy analyst

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Peak Oil Review – 18 Mar 2019

The struggle between a weakening global economy and the shrinking availability of oil supplies seems to be tipping in favor of the latter as oil prices slowly make their way higher. The electric power disruption in Venezuela has combined with the US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela and reports that the rapid increase in US shale oil production to add a bullish tone to the oil markets. Last week oil prices climbed $1-2 a barrel to close at $67 in London and $58 in New York. Last week a new EIA forecast cast doubt on the optimistic projections for US shale oil production which was slated to increase from 11.9 million b/d at the end of 2018 to 13.5 million by the end of 2020.

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Peak Oil Review – 11 Mar 2019

The struggle between declining economic growth and falling oil supplies continued to affect oil prices last week. The failure of a significant portion of Venezuela’s electricity grid has already been a significant blow to the country’s roughly 1 million b/d of oil production, and the situation seems likely to get worse. However, part of this decline could be offset by the return to production of Libya’s 300,000 b/d Sharara oilfield after being offline for three months.

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The fraying relationship between fracking companies and Wall Street

“The once-powerful partnership between fracking companies and Wall Street is fraying as the industry struggles to attract investors after nearly a decade of losing money. Frequent infusions of Wall Street capital have sustained the US shale boom. But that largess is running out. New bond and equity deals have dwindled to the lowest level since 2007. Companies raised about $22 billion from equity and debt financing in 2018, less than half the total in 2016 and almost one-third of what they raised in 2012.

Bradley Olson and Rebecca Elliott, Wall Street Journal, 2/24/19

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Peak Oil Review – 3 Mar 2019

The struggle between lower crude output and the prospects for a global economic setback that could reduce the demand for oil continued last week. Prices rose on bullish news early in the week and then fell to close only slightly higher for the week at $55.80 in New York and $65.07 in London. Most analysts are predicting that oil prices will continue to rise as the case for lower production later this year seems stronger than the case for lower demand.

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Exxon’s international vs. US domestic upstream capital expenditure and total liquid oil production

“While Exxon invested $12.5 billion on international upstream capital expenditures (CAPEX) to produce 1.7 million barrels a day of total liquid oil production in 2018, it spent a staggering $7.7 billion in US upstream CAPEX to supply only 551,000 b/d of oil. Thus, Exxon spent nearly double the amount of CAPEX for each barrel of US oil production versus its international oil supply… ExxonMobil’s US oil and gas sector is heading toward a financial disaster. It’s US oil and gas CAPEX spending will choke the living hell out of its profits. While some may think I am fermenting hype, the financial results shown above point to a pretty clear trend… and it ain’t good. If one of the world’s largest oil companies can’t make money producing US shale, then what does that say for the rest of the industry?”

Steve St. Angelo, independent precious metals and energy researcher

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Peak Oil Review – 25 Feb 2019

Brent crude futures briefly touched $67.73 a barrel on Friday, their 2019 high. The London contract then fell 5 cents to settle at $67.12 a barrel while US futures US gained 30 cents to settle at $57.26 per barrel, after hitting $57.81 earlier in the day. Despite forecasts that US shale oil production will continue to increase rapidly next month, supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya, the 1.8 million-barrel OPEC+ production cut, and hopes that the US-China trade dispute may be settled soon, were enough to push prices higher last week. Prices have now gained about $5 a barrel since mid-February but are still some $20 a barrel below the recent highs set last October.

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